000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111525
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUL 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

.TROPICAL STORM BUD NEAR 13.9N 112.6W 1005 MB AT 1500 UTC MOVING 
WNW OR 285 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 
KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 10 
NM NW QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER 
WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A 
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 
EXTENDS OUT 200 NM.  THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME 
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND THIS IS PREVENTING AN 
MORE SYMMETRIC CONVECTION PATTERN.  NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT 12.5N112W.

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N98W...ABOUT 250 NM S OF THE 
MEXICO COAST.  THE LOW IS MOVING W 5-10 KT AND IS COLLOCATED 
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS NORTH OF 5N ALONG 98W.  THE 
BROAD CIRCULATION IS NOT WELL DEFINED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT 14.7N100W AND 
THIS CONVECTION IS MOVING WEST AWAY FROM THE CENTER. THIS IS NOT 
CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT.  UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD OVER THE 
SYSTEM.  TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 
36 HRS.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 125W FROM 5N TO 17N MOVING W 5 KT WITH A 
1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N. A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS 
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW. COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES 
AND ELY VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT.  

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...4N77W 10N100W 10N115W 6N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE 
POINT 10N96.9W.

...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE 32N118W TO 
25N140W.  A SMALL EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 
31N134W.  THIS AREA IS DRY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS AND IS 
CLOUD FREE IN THESE LEVELS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS 
IN THE LOWER LEVELS.  

THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA NORTH OF 15N IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS IS A RIDGE.  SOUTH OF 15N BROAD TROUGH IS IN THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS.  

WEST OF A LINE 30N110W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 122W IS DRY AND CLOUD 
FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.  IN THE LOWER LEVELS BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS OBSERVED.  EAST OF THIS LINE TO 95W 
THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST IN THE DEEP LAYER WITH MULTI LEVEL 
CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION.  FROM 95W TO 85W THE 
ATMOSPHERE IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.
EAST OF 85W DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND 
EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION IS NOTED.
 
AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM 30N115W TO 7N140W A WEAK 
RIDGE IS ANALYZED.  ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA.
 
$$
LL