000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111021
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUL 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 06000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

.TROPICAL STORM BUD NEAR 13.7N 111.3W 1005 MB AT 0900 UTC  11 
MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT 
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER 
EXCEPT 0 NM NW QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM OF 
CENTER WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...T.D. THREE-E HAS DEVELOPED A SOLID 
PULSATING CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A BANDING FEATURE 
EXTENDING OVER THE WRN SEMICIRCLE. ALTHOUGH CONVENTIONAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN FUZZY WITH REGARDS TO A LOW-LEVEL 
CENTER...A 2031 UTC AMSR-E PASS CLEARLY IDENTIFIED A CENTER 
LYING JUST N OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION (BEFORE THE DEEPEST 
CONVECTION EXPANDED). A SMALL UPPER LOW JUST NE OF THE 
DEPRESSION IS STILL INFLICTING SOME NLY SHEAR ONTO THE 
SYSTEM...BUT IT HAS WEAKENED ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO 
INTENSIFY. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLE...AND SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF 
THE CENTER.

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N98W...ABOUT 250 NM S OF PUERTO 
ANGEL MEXICO...MOVING W 5-10 KT AND IS COLLOCATED WITH A 
TROPICAL WAVE S OF 14N. THE LOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED AND BROAD 
CIRCULATION WHICH MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELONGATED ALONG AN E/W AXIS 
AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN COMPOSED OF MANY SMALL TSTM CELLS 
THAT ARE NOT COLLECTIVELY VERY ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS 
GOOD OVER THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE S SEMICIRCLE...AND 
THE CIRCULATION IS IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 93W-105W.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 126W S OF 18N MOVING W 5 KT WITH A 1010 MB 
LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N. A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS NEAR THE 
CENTER OF THE LOW BUT IS BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE AS IT FEELS 
THE EFFECTS OF ELY VERTICAL SHEAR. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 124W-127W.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 12N97W 13N110W 12N120W 7N130W 
7N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 4N TO 8N E OF 79W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 
128W.

...DISCUSSION...

SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...
A BROAD SHEARED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA 
NEAR 32N136W AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS PRODUCING SWLY WINDS 
NW OF A LINE FROM 17N140W 30N116W. AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED E OF 
THIS AREA OFF THE BAJA COAST NEAR 26N116W...AND CONFLUENCE OF 
THE SWLY WINDS IS PRODUCING A NARROW SWATH OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 130W. DRY AIR HAS FILTERED DOWN THE E 
SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH...LEAVING MAINLY FAIR CONDITIONS FROM THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA WWD TO 120W.

TROPICAL PACIFIC...
THE TROPICAL PACIFIC IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE ACTIVE IN TERMS 
OF LOW DEVELOPMENT. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES IS ALONG A 
TROPICAL WAVE SSW OF THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC WITH FAIRLY GOOD 
UPPER DIVERGENCE HAVING SUPPORTED DEEP CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE 
DAY. MOST OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY HAS SINCE EMANATED OUTWARD AWAY 
FROM THE CENTER...BUT MORE CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING 
NEAR THE CENTER. FARTHER W...THE LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 450 NM SW 
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
THREE-E...AS DESCRIBED IN SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A THIRD LOW 
NEAR 13N125W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ELY SHEAR AND IS RUNNING INTO A 
DRIER ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS LIMITING ORGANIZATION. THE W PART OF 
THE TROPICAL PACIFIC W OF 130W IS UNDER THE DOMAIN OF WEAK 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR.

$$
FETBERG