000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102140 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON JUL 10 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N110W...OR ABOUT 450 NM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...MOVING W ABOUT 5-10 KT. THE SYSTEM HAS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE SEVERAL INTERNAL MINI-CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED NEAR THE CENTER. DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY LIMITED TO THE S AND SW QUADRANTS OF THE LOW...DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR FROM A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 15N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY WITHIN 180 NM S AND W SEMICIRCLES...WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING OUT OF THE NW QUADRANT. THE NLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX A BIT OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HRS SO TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS. A NEW 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N96W...ABOUT 250 NM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO...MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE VICINITY HAS BEEN MOVED TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW FOR CONTINUITY. THE WAVE/LOW IS DEVELOPING A BROADER AND MORE DEFINED CIRCULATION...BUT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG CELLS FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 92W-103W. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS AS IT MOVES WNW PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN COAST. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 124W S OF 17N MOVING W 5 KT WITH A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N. A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW BUT IS BEING DISPLACED TO THE W BY ELY VERTICAL SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W/NW OF THE LOW. ..ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 16N105W 12N111W 12N120W 7N130W 7N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 102W-108W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W-127W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 135W. ...DISCUSSION... SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC... A BROAD SHEARED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N136W AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS PRODUCING SWLY WINDS NW OF A LINE FROM 18N140W 30N116W. AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED E OF THIS AREA OFF THE BAJA COAST NEAR 26N116W...AND CONFLUENCE OF THE SWLY WINDS IS PRODUCING A NARROW SWATH OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 130W. DRY AIR HAS FILTERED DOWN THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH...LEAVING MAINLY FAIR CONDITIONS FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WWD TO 120W. TROPICAL PACIFIC... THE TROPICAL PACIFIC IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE ACTIVE IN TERMS OF LOW DEVELOPMENT. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES HAS FORMED ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE SSW OF THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC WITH FAIRLY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE HAVING SUPPORTED DEEP CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY. MOST OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY HAS SINCE EMANATED OUTWARD AWAY FROM THE CENTER...BUT MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. FARTHER W...A SECOND LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 450 NM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AS DESCRIBED IN SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS GOOD ON THE SRN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND THAT IS WHERE THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED. HOWEVER...A SMALL UPPER LOW NEAR 15N108W IS PROVIDING SOME NLY SHEAR TO THE SYSTEM. A THIRD LOW NEAR 13N124W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ELY SHEAR AND IS RUNNING INTO A DRIER ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS LIMITING ORGANIZATION. THE W PART OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC W OF 130W IS UNDER THE DOMAIN OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR. $$ BERG