000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101516
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURE...

LOW PRES 11N110W 1006 MB MOVE WNW 10 KT.  AN AREA OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT 
10.5N109.5W. SLIGHT ORGANIZATION IS NOTED WITH THE CONVECTION 
AND THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 36 HOURS.  THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES 
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THE SYSTEM HOWEVER THERE IS ALSO 
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W N OF 4N INTO GUATEMALA IS MOVING W 15 
KT.  CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE HAS DECREASED WITH A LARGE AREA OF 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF THE POINT 12N95W WHICH IS 
WELL WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS.
 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 124W FROM 5N TO 16N IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. 
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES 
OVER COLDER WATER.

..ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...4N77W 12N110W 12N120W 7N130W 
7N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF THE 
POINT 12N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN THE AREA FROM 16N TO 17.5N FROM 100W TO 106W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT 
10.5N109.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
FROM 9N TO 13N FROM 113W TO 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE THROUGH 
32N127W TO 25N140W.  SOME MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
OBSERVED BUT SKIES ARE CLEAR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS 
WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND A LINE FROM THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 20N TO 
THE ITCZ NEAR 125W THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS COVERED BY 
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  THIS REGION IS OBSERVED TO BE DRY IN 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH SKIES CLEAR IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS AND OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

EAST OF THE LINE FROM THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 20N TO THE ITCZ 
NEAR 125W TO A LINE FROM 16N95W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 105W A MIDDLE 
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OBSERVED.  THIS AREA IS MOIST IN THE 
DEEP LAYER WITH MULTI LEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS AND 
EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION.

EAST OF THE ABOVE SYSTEM WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED.  A 
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IS BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 
THE ITCZ.  THE CONVECTION IS MOVING RAPIDLY WEST AND THIS IS 
NOT CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT.  

AT THE SURFACE A WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF LINE FROM THE MIDDLE OF 
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO THE ITCZ NEAR 7N140W.  THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS A BROAD TROUGH.

$$
LL