000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091558 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN JUL 09 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NONE ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83.5W N OF 4N MOVING W 15 KT THE PAST 24 HOURS. ENHANCED CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN ITCZ PARAGRAPH BELOW. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101.5W N OF 4N MOVING W AT 15 KT THE PAST 24 HOURS. SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AT 100W WHERE A FEW TSTMS CONTINUE TO FLARE...OTHERWISE ENHANCED CONVECTION REMAINS WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 111W N OF 4N WAS PREVIOUSLY RELOCATED WITH MOTION NOW ESTIMATED TO BE W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING WITH CONVECTION ENHANCED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 124W N OF 4N CONTINUES TO MOVE W AT 15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AT 10N WITH CONVECTION REMAINING WITH THE ITCZ AND DECREASING THE PAST 24 HOURS. ..ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 9N79W 10N95W 12N115W 7N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 7N83W 13N105W 10N123W THEN WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 7N123W 6N140W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N119W CONTINUES TO MOVE E TRAILING A TROUGH WSW TO ANOTHER CYCLONE NEAR 33N131W WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO BEYOND 22N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 18N118W AND APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING W WITH TIME. A RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO A CREST AT 13N130W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N135W TO 6N133W... EFFECTIVELY SEPARATING THIS EASTERN RIDGE FROM ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST W OF THE AREA AT 11N146W RIDGING E TO 13N138W. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS NE FROM THE ANTICYCLONE AT 18N118W ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TO OVER OLD MEXICO AT 27N105W. THE UPPER FLOW IS SW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF LINE 32N105W TO TO 18N140W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 107W AND 127W WITH SOME OF THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE S CENTRAL CONUS. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 32N83W 21N96W TO NEAR 10N105W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 13N90W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 23N BETWEEN 92W AND 80W. ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE ITCZ BETWEEN 101W AND 80W. RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FANS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 100W AND 80W AND COVERS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...THEN NARROWS INTO A THIN BAND MOVING NE ACROSS S FLORIDA THEN N TO BEYOND 32N70W. GAPS WINDS...STRONG ELY WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY BLEED THROUGH THE GAPS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA ACROSS THE E PAC WATERS FROM 10N TO 13N E OF 93W. $$ NELSON