000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUL 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NONE
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W N OF 4N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT BASED ON 24 
HOUR MOTION. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS 
DISPLACED W OF THE AXIS AND LIES WITHIN THE ITCZ. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W N OF 4N MOVING W AT 15 KT BASED ON 24 
HOUR MOTION.  THE WAVE IS LOCATED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF 
ENHANCED ITCZ WITH NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION OR DEVELOPMENT.  

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W N OF 4N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT BASED ON 24 
HOUR MOTION.  LATEST QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWS A LARGE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.  HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS 
POORLY ORGANIZED WITH NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.  

..ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...7N77W 11N100W 13N115W 10N120W 
7N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
240 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 85W AND 116W. 

...DISCUSSION...
CUTOFF MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED JUST N OF THE AREA OFF 
THE COAST OF S CALIFORNIA NEAR 33N121W. FARTHER S...THE DOMINANT 
WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE AREA IS A STRENGTHENING MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 20N115W. THE ANTICYCLONE IS PART OF AN 
EXPANSIVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM TEXAS 
SW OVER CENTRAL MEXICO TO 15N125W IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. A 
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS LIES ALONG THE W 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM THE N BAJA PENINSULA TO 13N132W AND 
DELINEATES CONFLUENT FLOW/SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST FROM DIFFLUENT 
AND MOIST UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TO THE EAST COVERING ALL OF 
MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 125W. 
VIGOROUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION OCCURRED YET AGAIN ALONG THE W 
COAST OF MEXICO WITH ISOLATED RESIDUAL CONVECTION CURRENTLY 
ALONG AND W OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS. EARLIER 
DEEP CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA HAS PRIMARILY MOVED 
OFFSHORE BUT WIDESPREAD OVERCAST CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED 
SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAIN.  ITCZ CONVECTION IS MOST ACTIVE E OF 125W 
OWING TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE 
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN HAS BEEN SHIFTING WESTWARD NEAR 15 KT. 

$$
RHOME