000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081517
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUL 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
LOW PRES 12N118W 1008 MB MOVE W 10 KT.  LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 
760 NM SW OF THE S TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  SATELLITE IMAGERY 
CONTINUES TO INDICATE SLOW ORGANIZATION AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE 
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT MOVES OVER 
COOLER WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 15.4N118W AND 13.4N119.1W.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W N OF 4N MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT BASED ON 
24 HOUR MOTION.  THE WAVE IS BEST DEFINED OVER S MEXICO AND THE 
GULF OF MEXICO WITH LIMITED CONVECTION NOTED OVER THE E PACIFIC. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104W FROM 4N TO 14N MOVING W AT 15 KT BASED 
ON 24 HOUR MOTION.  THE WAVE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BUT 
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION OR DEVELOPMENT. 

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE 6N77W 9N100W 
7N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 
NM OF THE POINT 6.8N81.2W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 9.1N105W.

OTHER SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE POINTS 13.8N96W AND 
15.7N100.7W AND 17N104.4W.

...DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NW OF A LINE 32N108W 20N140W.  LITTLE 
WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
AND A FEW BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 130W.  THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE LINE 32N108W TO 
20N120W TO THE ITCZ AT 124W THE AREA IS DRY IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS IMPLYING UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  EAST OF THAT LINE 
AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ THE AREA IS COVERED BY MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS 
WITH AREAS OF CONVECTION.  

SURFACE...
MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 25N TO 
10N140W.  EXCEPT FOR THE LOW NEAR 12N118W THE REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA IS BY BROAD LOW PRESSURE.

$$
LL