000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080906
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUL 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
1009 MB LOW PRES APPROXIMATELY 700 NM SW OF THE S TIP OF THE 
BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 12N117W MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. SATELLITE 
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE SLOW ORGANIZATION AND THIS SYSTEM 
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT 
MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W N OF 4N MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT BASED ON 
24 HOUR MOTION.  THE WAVE IS BEST DEFINED OVER S MEXICO AND THE 
GULF OF MEXICO WITH LIMITED CONVECTION NOTED OVER THE E PACIFIC. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W N OF 4N MOVING W AT 15 KT BASED ON 24 
HOUR MOTION.  THE WAVE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BUT THERE 
ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION OR DEVELOPMENT. 

..ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...7N77W 10N100W 11N115W 9N125W 
10N135W 7N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 87W AND 105W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 108W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ W OF 136W. 

...DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME N PART OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING SW FROM A CUTOFF LOW OVER CENTRAL 
CALIFORNIA TO 31N130W WHERE IT DEGENERATES INTO A CYCLONIC SHEAR 
AXIS TO BEYOND 30N140W. ASSOCIATED 50-80 KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET 
LIES POLEWARD OF A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM THE N BAJA PENINSULA TO BEYOND 12N140W.  FARTHER 
E...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAILS SWD FROM THE SW UNITED 
STATES OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH 21N120W TO THE 
ITCZ NEAR 11N126W. THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH AXIS HAS BEEN 
SHIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS COURTESY OF A 
STRENGTHENING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST S OF THE 
BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 20N110W. THE ANTICYCLONE IS PART OF A LARGER 
SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM TEXAS SWD 
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO TO 13N122W IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. THE W 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE DELINEATES CONFLUENT FLOW AND MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST FROM DIFFLUENT AND MOIST UPPER 
LEVEL CONDITIONS TO THE EAST COVERING ALL OF MEXICO...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...AND THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 120W. THIS FLOW REGIME 
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER  
PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH ACTIVITY WEAKENING 
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.  CURRENTLY...ISOLATED 
RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY 
CURRENTLY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ALONG THE W SLOPES OF THE SIERRA 
MADRE ORIENTALS.  SIMILARLY...ITCZ CONVECTION IS STRONGEST AND 
MOST NUMEROUS E OF 120W.  

$$
RHOME