000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071608
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUL 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N112W MOVING W ABOUT 10-15 KT. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER 
ORGANIZED. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NW IS ENHANCING OUTFLOW 
AND SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY DEVELOP. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 200 NM NW 
SEMICIRCLE.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS S OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 90W N OF 
4N MOVING W ESTIMATED 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING ITCZ 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 90 AND 96W. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W N OF 4N MOVING W ESTIMATED 15 KT. THE 
WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF  
14N100W. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 8N77W 9N90W 8N100W 11N113W 10N120W 
8N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 
75W TO 100W AND 132W TO 136W. 

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 150 NM OF 14N94W.

...DISCUSSION...
50-70 KT SUBTROPICAL JET LIES POLEWARD OF A RIDGE AXIS WHICH 
EXTENDS FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA TO 16N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW  
IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 29N113W WITH A  
TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE ITCZ NEAR 13N120W. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY 
CONDITIONS ALOFT COVER A BROAD AREA 400-500 NM W OF THE UPPER 
TROUGH AXIS. MOIST SLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE E PERIPHERY OF THE 
UPPER LOW IS ADVECTING DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO W MEXICO. 
DIFFLUENT FLOW SOUTH OF MEXICO ALONG 14N IS PRODUCING AREAS OF 
MODERATELY ACTIVE ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 92W AND 105W.

$$
MUNDELL