000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070912
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JUL 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NONE.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W N OF 4N MOVING W AT AN ESTIMATED SPEED 
OF 15 TO 20 KT BASED ON 24 HOUR MOTION.  THE WAVE IS PRODUCING 
AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM 
OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM W PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W N OF 4N MOVING W AT AN ESTIMATED SPEED 
OF 15 TO 20 KT BASED ON 24 HOUR MOTION.  THE WAVE IS DEVOID OF 
DEEP CONVECTION BUT A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS 
OBSERVED IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W FROM 4N TO 17N MOVING W AT AN ESTIMATED 
SPEED OF 10-15 KT BASED ON 24 HOUR MOTION.  LATEST SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND A 
BROAD SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO BE FORMING ALONG THE WAVE IN THE 
VICINITY OF 11.5N. ADDITIONALLY...LOOSELY ORGANIZED BANDS OF 
CONVECTION ARE ALIGNING CYCLONICALLY ABOUT THE WAVE FORMING A 
LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG ACTIVITY FROM 
THE ITCZ NWD TO 16N BETWEEN 110W AND 116W.  UPPER LEVEL WINDS 
APPEAR FAVORABLE AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE 
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 139W FROM 8N TO 15N MOVING W AT AN ESTIMATED 
SPEED OF 15 KT BASED ON 24 HOUR MOTION. THE WAVE REMAINS DEVOID 
OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AND SHOULD MOVE W OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.  

..ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...7N77W 7N90W 11N110W 10N120W 
8N130W 7N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 8N 
BETWEEN 90W AND 95W AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 
105W AND 115W.  SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 110W AND 116W. 

...DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. WITH AXIS TRAILING SW 
THROUGH 30N140W.  ASSOCIATED 50-80 KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET LIES 
POLEWARD OF A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS 
WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE N BAJA PENINSULA TO BEYOND 18N140W.  
FARTHER E...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE 
CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 29N113W WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH 
EXTENDING SW TO THE ITCZ NEAR 10N120W.  CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN 
THE UPPER LOW AND THE RIDGE FURTHER W IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT WITHIN 400-500 
NM W OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. CONVERSELY...MOIST SLY FLOW ALOFT 
AROUND THE E PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT 
COPIOUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NWD OVER ALL OF MEXICO. 
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE COUPLED WITH INCREASING MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES IS ASSISTING AFTERNOON 
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER ALL OF MEXICO.  THE SW UNITED STATES RIDGE 
EXTENDS SW OVER CENTRAL MEXICO TO 13N115W IN THE PACIFIC.  
ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA OFF THE W COAST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA TO 120W.  DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE SW 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING INCREASING CONVECTION NEAR A 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W. 

$$
RHOME