000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061609
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NONE.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W FROM 4N TO 21N MOVING W ESTIMATED SPEED 
20 KT. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION FROM 80W TO 86W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W FROM 3N TO 12N MOVING W ESTIMATED SPEED 
15 KT. THE WAVE CURRENTLY LACKS SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W FROM 5 TO 15N MOVING W ESTIMATED SPEED 
15 KT.  THE WAVE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 100W AND 
115W. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 135W FROM 4N TO 13N MOVING W ESTIMATED SPEED 
12 KT. THE WAVE CURRENTLY LACKS SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

..ITCZ...

AXIS 8N78W 8N94W 10N110W 9N123W 10N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W 
AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME NW PART OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM S CALIFORNIA TO HAWAII. 
60-80 KT SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/MEXICO 
BORDER TO 20N140W. AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED S OF THE TROUGH IS 
CENTERED NEAR 17N130W WITH A SW/NE ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 22N118W TO BEYOND 15N140W. AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE 
BAJA PENINSULA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 10N120W. CONFLUENT 
FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND THE ANTICYCLONE IS PRODUCING 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT BETWEEN 115W AND 
135W. SLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE E PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW IS 
ADVECTING DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW 
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO CONTINUE IN N MEXICO.  DIFFLUENT 
FLOW SOUTH OF MEXICO ALONG 10N IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF ACTIVE 
ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 95W AND 115W. ITCZ CONVECTION IS MUCH 
WEAKER W OF 115W DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.   

$$
MUNDELL