000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060921
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUL 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NONE.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W N OF 4N MOVING W AT AN ESTIMATED SPEED 
OF 15 TO 20 KT BASED ON 24 HOUR MOTION. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING 
ITCZ CONVECTION FROM 90W TO 96W BUT THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF 
ORGANIZATION. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W FROM 4N TO 17N MOVING W AT AN ESTIMATED 
SPEED OF 15 KT BASED ON 24 HOUR MOTION.  THE WAVE IS ENHANCING 
ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 103W AND 113W BUT THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF 
ORGANIZATION. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 133W FROM 8N TO 15N MOVING W AT AN ESTIMATED 
SPEED OF 15 KT. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP 
CONVECTION.  

..ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...7N77W 8N95W 11N110W 8N125W 
9N140W.  WIDELY SCATTERED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 85W AND 95W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 
103W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFYING MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME 
NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF 
THE W COAST OF THE U.S. TO HAWAII. ASSOCIATED 50-80 KT 
SOUTHWESTERLY JET LIES POLEWARD OF A LINE FROM S CALIFORNIA TO 
20N140W. A WELL-DEFINED ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED S OF THE TROUGH 
NEAR 17N127W WITH ASSOCIATED SW/NE ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM S CALIFORNIA TO BEYOND 15N140W.  COMPARED TO THIS TIME 
YESTERDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN HAS SHIFTED SOUTH SEVERAL 
DEGREES. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED JUST W OF THE S TIP 
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE 
ITCZ NEAR 10N125W.  CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND THE 
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 17N127W IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT BETWEEN 110W AND 
135W. CONVERSELY...MOIST SLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE E PERIPHERY 
OF THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT COPIOUS MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE NWD OVER ALL OF MEXICO. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE 
COUPLED WITH INCREASING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...FROM THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NWD TO RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS ASSISTING 
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER N PORTIONS OF MEXICO WITH RESIDUAL 
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT 
HOURS. OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE OVER MEXICO COVERS THE AREA OFF THE W 
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO 120W.  ADDITIONALLY...DIFFLUENT FLOW 
ALONG THE S PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING THE MOST ACTIVE 
ITCZ CONVECTION GENERALLY E OF 120W.  ITCZ CONVECTION IS MUCH 
WEAKER W OF 120W OWING TO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.   

$$
RHOME