000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051559
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUL 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W N OF 4N MOVING W AT ESTIMATED 20 KT. THE 
WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR PANAMA FROM 8 
TO 11N BETWEEN 77W AND 82W. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W N OF 3N MOVING W AT ESTIMATED 15 KT. 
THE WAVE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF WAVE AXIS AT 7N. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 4N TO 20N MOVING W AT ESTIMATED 12 
KT. THE WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE 
FROM 20N 105W TO 14N 103W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 131W FROM 8N TO 20N MOVING W AT ESTIMATED 16 
KT. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

..ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 10N78W 9N94W 9N105W 10N130W
9N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N 
TO 9N BETWEEN 85W AND 98W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 107W AND 122W. 

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED NW OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AN ASSOCIATED 90 KT JET LOCATED 
POLEWARD OF A LINE FROM S CALIFORNIA TO 25N140W. A SW/NE ORIENTED
ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED S OF THE TROUGH NEAR 20N130W WITH A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE N BAJA PENINSULA TO BEYOND 20N140W.
FARTHER E...A NEARLY STATIONARY REX BLOCK PATTERN CONTINUES E OF 
115W WITH A ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE SW NEAR NEW MEXICO AND 
AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT 
AROUND THE E PERIPHERY OF THE LOW IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT MID- AND 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NWD OVER MEXICO. INCREASED MOISTURE COUPLED 
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS GENERATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER 
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO. A WELL-DEFINED ANTICYCLONE IS EVIDENT
OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS S 
MEXICO TO 12N110W IN THE E PACIFIC. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE 
AREA OFF THE W COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE E PACIFIC E OF 
120W. ADDITIONALLY...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG THE S PERIPHERY OF THE 
RIDGE IS PRODUCING THE ACTIVE ITCZ CONVECTION E OF 120W. LIGHT 
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE DEEP TROPICS W OF 120W. 

$$
MUNDELL