000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 18N125W MOVING NW NEAR 10 KT. 
THE LOW IS NOT PRODUCING AND SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AND IS 
EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH/WAVE WITHIN THE NEXT 
12-24 HOURS.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W N OF 4N MOVING W AT AN ESTIMATED SPEED 
OF 15 KT BASED ON 24 HOUR MOTION. THE WAVE IS PRODUCING AN AREA 
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OFF THE COAST OF 
COSTA RICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W. THERE ARE NO SIGNS 
OF DEVELOPMENT. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W FROM 4N TO 17N MOVING W AT AN ESTIMATED 
SPEED OF 15 KT BASED ON 24 HOUR MOTION.  THE WAVE IS MUCH LESS 
ACTIVE THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND IS CURRENTLY ONLY PRODUCING WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 250 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
WAVE AXIS. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 128W FROM 8N TO 20N MOVING W AT AN ESTIMATED 
SPEED OF 15 KT. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP 
CONVECTION.  

..ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 8N78W 10N105W 9N115W 
12N120W 9N130W 6N140W.  ASIDE FROM CONVECTION OUTLINED WITH 
TROPICAL WAVES...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 200 
NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 108W-120W. 

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED N AND W OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AN ASSOCIATED 90 KT 
SOUTHWESTERLY JET LOCATED POLEWARD OF A LINE FROM S CALIFORNIA 
TO 25N140W. A SW/NE ELONGATED ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED S OF THE 
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH NEAR 20N130W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM THE N BAJA PENINSULA TO BEYOND 20N140W. FARTHER 
E...A NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH-OVER-LOW BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES 
E OF 115W WITH A ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE SW UNITED STATES 
NEAR NEW MEXICO AND AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE S TIP OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA. MOIST SLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE E PERIPHERY OF THE 
LOW IS ADVECTING COPIOUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NWD OVER 
S AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MEXICO. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE 
COUPLED WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS ASSISTING AFTERNOON 
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO WITH RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS 
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A 
WELL-DEFINED ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO 
WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS S MEXICO TO 12N110W IN 
THE E PACIFIC. ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA OFF 
THE W COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE E PACIFIC E OF 120W.  
ADDITIONALLY...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG THE S PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE 
IS PRODUCING THE MOST ACTIVE ITCZ CONVECTION E OF 120W.  LIGHT 
TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE DEEP 
TROPICS W OF 120W. 

$$
RHOME