000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050329
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W N OF 4N INTO CENTRAL AMERICA IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE MAY BE 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AND OVER COSTA RICA AND 
WESTERN PANAMA.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W FROM 3N TO 18N IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
MOVING W AT 15 KT AND IS THE BEST DEFINED OF THE THREE PACIFIC 
WAVES. 

TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED ALONG 128W FROM 5N TO 15N AND 
IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

..ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 7N78W 8N90W 12N103W 9N115W 
13N122W 8N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 
NM EITHER SIDE OF A 9N82W 6N90W 8N95W LINE AND WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A 11N100W 14.5N105W LINE. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A 6.5N136.5W 8N140W LINE.

...DISCUSSION...

A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE NW PART OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. THE TROUGH EXTENDS WELL BEYOND 32N OVER THE N 
PACIFIC. A JET IS LOCATED THROUGH 25N140W TO NEAR 26N125W. THIS 
JET APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY AND HAS BEEN NEARLY 
STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TO THE SOUTH AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 16N131W AND COVERS A 
LARGE AREA STRETCHING FROM 10N TO ABOUT 25N BETWEEN 122W AND 
135W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED WITHIN A 5-6 DEGREE RADIUS OF 
THE CIRCULATION CENTER.

MOVING DOWNSTREAM A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 23.5N110.5W SOUTHWARD 
TO 12N116W. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LOCATED ON THE E SIDE OF 
THE TROUGH. CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOCATED WITHIN 7 TO 8 DEGREES 
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS 
THE AREA ROUGHLY N OF 5N E OF 102W AND INCLUDES MEXICO AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA.

$$
CAB