000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042146 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE JUL 04 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W N OF 4N INTO CENTRAL AMERICA IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE MAY BE ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AND OVER COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104W FROM 3N TO 18N IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W AT 15 KT AND IS THE BEST DEFINED OF THE THREE PACIFIC WAVES. A CONVECTIVE BAND CENTERED NEAR 12N103W IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOW. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 18N124W AND IS MOVING NW AT 15 KT. THE LOW IS ATTACHED TO A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 123W FROM 7N TO 20N. THE LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BOTH THE LOW AND WAVE ARE VOID OF ANY CONVECTION. ..ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 7N78W 8N90W 12N103W 9N110W 11N122W 8N131W 9N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 8.5N78W 6N85W 7N92W LINE...WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 12.5N96.5W...AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 11N101W 12N105W LINE. ...DISCUSSION... A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE TROUGH EXTENDS WELL BEYOND 32N OVER THE N PACIFIC. A JET IS LOCATED THROUGH 25N140W TO NEAR 26N125W. TO THE SOUTH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 15N130W AND COVERS A LARGE AREA STRETCHING FROM 10N TO ABOUT 25N BETWEEN 122W AND 138W. MOVING DOWNSTREAM A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 23N111W SOUTHWARD TO 12N118W. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LOCATED ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE AREA ROUGHLY N OF 5N E OF 105W. $$ CAB