000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041554
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUL 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W N OF 4N IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W AT 
15 KT. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE ACROSS THE WAVE ENHANCING 
A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION E OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 15 NM 
OF 7N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS ENHANCED 
ELSEWHERE N OF 3N E OF 85W.   

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W N OF 5N IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W AT 
18 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED NEAR 11N102W WITH 
CONVECTION ENHANCED UNDER AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE TO N OF 11N 
BETWEEN 103W AND 90W.

LOW PRES NEAR 17.5N122.9 IS ESTIMATED AT 1010 MB AND IS MOVING 
NW AT 15 KT...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 122W. A 
SMALL CONVECTIVE BURST OF 1/10 BAND CONVECTION NOTED ABOUT 90 NM 
E OF THE EXPOSED CENTER. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN 
ABOUT 24 HOURS. 

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 8N79W 10N88W 9N105W 8N131W 
9N140W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 15 NM OF 7N79W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 4N76W 16N012W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG WITHIN 15 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 7N90W 10N118W.

...DISCUSSION...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NE PACIFIC STEMMING 
FROM A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE NEAR 52N143W WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
EXTENDING SW TO NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE UPPER FLOW IS SW 
OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF A LINE 32N122W TO 17N140W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 15N126W. A RIDGE 
EXTENDS N CRESTING ALONG 30N123W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM 
THE ANTICYCLONE TO NEAR 15N140W AND A RIDGE EXTENDS SE TO A 
SHARP CREST NEAR 13N118W. ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 140W. THE 
RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING S CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
BETWEEN 142W AND 118W.

A WEAK UPPER CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 22N111W WITH A TROUGH 
EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 12N118W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED 
AT 20N94W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 13N114W AND A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 
8N82W. ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING E PAC CONVECTION E OF 
105W ALONG THE THE ITCZ AND ALONG 2 TROPICAL WAVES. THE 
RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADS N ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TURNING BACK TO S 
OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN INTO A SHARP UPPER 
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE NW BAHAMAS. 

GAPS WINDS...N OF 12N E OF 99W...ENE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT EXPECTED 
TO PERSIST FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS.

$$
NELSON