000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUL 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N121W MOVING NW ABOUT 10 KT. 
THE LOW IS ATTACHED TO A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHING 
FROM THE ITCZ NWD TO 20N. NEITHER THE LOW NOR THE TROPICAL WAVE 
ARE PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AND TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W N OF 4N MOVING W AT AN ESTIMATED SPEED 
OF 15 TO 20 KT BASED ON 24 HOUR MOTION. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING 
ITCZ CONVECTION LOCATED E OF THE AXIS NEAR THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA.  

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W FROM 4N TO 17N MOVING W AT AN ESTIMATED 
SPEED OF 20 KT BASED ON 24 HOUR MOTION. A RECENT BURST OF STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE N EXTENT OF THE WAVE OR JUST OFF 
THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN PUERTO ANGEL AND ACAPULCO.  
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE 
AXIS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED 
CONVECTION MAY CLIP THE S COAST OF MEXICO PRODUCING LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAIN.  

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 121W FROM 8N TO 20N MOVING W AT AN ESTIMATED 
SPEED OF 10 KT BASED ON 24 HOUR MOTION. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION. 

..ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...6N77W 10N100W 11N110W 12N120W 
8N130W 9N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 
96W-102W AND FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 90W-95W. SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 3N-7N E OF 80W. 

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED N AND W OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT COVERING THE AREA N OF 
ABOUT 18N W OF 125W. A BAND OF CIRRUS CLOUDS MARKS A STRONG 
SOUTHWESTERLY JET LOCATED THROUGH 23N140W TO BEYOND 32N128W. 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 70 TO 100 KNOT RANGE ALONG THE 
JET AXIS BASED ON UW-CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND VECTORS. 
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...A HIGH-OVER-LOW PATTERN PREVAILS WITH A 
ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE SW UNITED STATES NEAR NEW MEXICO 
WITH AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE S TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. 
MOIST SLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE E PERIPHERY OF THE LOW IS 
ADVECTING COPIOUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER S AND 
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MEXICO. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS 
ASSISTING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 105W 
AS WELL AS ACROSS MEXICO. THE STRONGEST OF THE CONVECTION IS 
LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE S MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM EL 
SALVADOR WESTWARD TO ACAPULCO MEXICO.  WEST OF THE UPPER LOW...A 
WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTH-WESTWARD FROM THE SW U.S. ANTICYCLONE 
TO 22N130W. THIS IS CREATING A CONFLUENT PATTERN AND RELATIVELY 
DRIER/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE 
PACIFIC.  ACCORDINGLY...LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
ALONG A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRES NEAR 121W.  OVER 
THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC...BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ORIGINATING 
FROM AN ANTICYCLONE JUST S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC COVERS THE 
AREA OFF THE W COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ALSO MEXICO E OF 
100W. OTHERWISE LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT 
COVERS THE DEEP TROPICS. 

$$
RHOME