000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040329
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N140W AND MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. 
MINIMAL CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE LOW IS 
EASILY IDENTIFIED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH MAINLY LOW 
CLOUDS ROTATING ABOUT THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER OVER THE N 
SEMICIRCLE. 

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N120W AND MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. 
A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 15N120W. THE LOW IS ATTACHED TO A WELL-
DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHING FROM 19N119W TO 9N120W. 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W N OF 4N IS MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W FROM 4N TO 17N IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING 
W AT 15 TO 20 KT. ENHANCED CONVECTION IS NOTED UP TO 4 TO 5 
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. 

..ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 7N78W 11N97W 10N110W 
14N117W 8N130W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
IS LOCATED IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 14.5N100W 11N93W 7N98W 
8N105.5W TO 14.5N100W. 

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N...
LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED N AND W OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT COVERING THE AREA N OF 
ABOUT 18N W OF 125W. A BAND OF CIRRUS CLOUDS MARKS A STRONG 
SOUTHWESTERLY JET LOCATED THROUGH 23N140W TO BEYOND 32N128W. 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 60 TO 70 KNOT RANGE ALONG THE 
JET AXIS. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM A RIDGE AXIS ALOFT IS LOCATED ALONG 
125W N OF 20N WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NOTED 4 TO 5 DEGREES EITHER 
SIDE OF THE RIDGE. OVER AND OFF THE W COAST OF MEXICO A 
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING ROUGHLY THROUGH 
25N105W TO A WEAKENING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 
22.5N110W TO 15N112W. A SOUTHERLY JET LIES ON THE E SIDE OF THE 
TROUGH FROM NEAR 15N104W INTO E MEXICO NEAR 25N100W. 

S OF 15N...
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE AREA OFF THE W COAST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND ALSO MEXICO E OF 100W. OTHERWISE LIGHT TO 
OCCASIONAL MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE DEEP TROPICS. 

$$
CAB