000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032149
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N138W AND MOVING W 10 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS 
OF 11N138W. THE LOW IS EASILY IDENTIFIED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY WITH MAINLY LOW CLOUDS ROTATING ABOUT THE CLOUD SYSTEM 
CENTER OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE.

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 13N119W AND MOVING W 12 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN A 90 
NM RADIUS OF 12N120W. THE LOW IS ATTACHED TO A NICELY DEFINED 
TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHING FROM 18N118W TO 7N119W. TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W N OF 4N IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W AT 
20 KT. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W N OF 5N IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W AT 
15 TO 20 KT. ENHANCED CONVECTION IS NOTED UP TO 7 TO 8 DEGREES W 
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N TO 13N. 

..ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 8N77W 10N95W 10N110W 
12N121W 8N128W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
IS LOCATED WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 5N77W 6N84W LINE...FROM 
7.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 96W AND 102W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A 13.5N102W 12.5N106W 10N108W LINE. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A 12.5N116.5W 9.5N114W LINE.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N...
LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED N AND W OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT COVERING THE AREA N OF 
ABOUT 18N W OF 120W. A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY JET IS LOCATED 
THROUGH 23N140W TO BEYOND 32N130W. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE IN 
THE 60 TO 70 KNOT RANGE ALONG THE JET AXIS. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM A 
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT IS LOCATED ALONG 125W N OF 20N WITH 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NOTED 4 TO 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
OVER AND OFF THE W COAST OF MEXICO A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 28N105W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTERED NEAR 22.5N108W TO 15N109W. A SOUTHERLY JET LIES ON THE 
E SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM NEAR 15N104W INTO E MEXICO NEAR 
25N100W. 

S OF 15N...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE DEEP 
TROPICS. 

$$
CAB