000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031602 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON JUL 03 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... LOW PRES NEAR 13N119W 1009 MB CONTINUES TO REORGANIZE AS IT PROGRESSES W AT ABOUT 10 KT. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS ORIENTATED NE TO SW FROM 18N117W TO 8N123W. MOVEMENT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270 DEG AT 12 KT FOR THE ENTIRE SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL SWIRLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPIN OFF TO THE W AND NW AND THEN ANOTHER LOW LEVEL SWIRL DEVELOPS NEAR THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE. LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 11.5N137W AND MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG A WEAK BAND WITHIN 90 NM IN SW QUADRANT. ITS WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT IS SHRINKING AS IT TRACKS W UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE THAT NOW CRESTS NEAR 11N145W. THEREAFTER INCREASING SW SHEAR AND COLDER SURFACE WATERS WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W N OF 4N IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ AT 7N. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 5N IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W AT 18 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED NEAR 8N95W WITH CONVECTION ENHANCED N OF 5N BETWEEN 89W AND 95W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 120W DESCRIBED ABOVE. ..ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 9N78W 9N90W 9N100W 13N119W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG NOTED WITHIN 15 NM OF AXIS TO THE E OF 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG OBSERVED FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 88W AND 107W AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE ALONG 7N109W 13N116W 9N126W AND WITHIN 15 NM OF 11N138W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NE PACIFIC STEMMING FROM A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE NEAR 49N145W WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING S TO NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE UPPER FLOW IS SW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF A LINE 32N122W TO 15N140W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 12N120W. A RIDGE EXTENDS N TO BEYOND 32N121W AND MERGES WITH A BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE N AMERICA BETWEEN 125W AND 90W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO NEAR 11N143W AND A RIDGE EXTENDS SE TO A SHARP CREST NEAR 9N112W. ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 140W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOW SPREADING S CROSSING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 135W AND 110W. A WEAK UPPER CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 25N115W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO A BASE NEAR 13N105W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 16N91W...WITH ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING THE ITCZ BETWEEN 107W AND 82W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADS N ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE EXPENDS ALONG 32N134W TO 22N112W. BROKEN LOCALLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS OBSERVED ROUGHLY W OF LINE 12N140W 24N112W. GAPS WINDS...ENE WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL STRONG ELY WINDS WEAKEN UPSTREAM IN THE CARIBBEAN. $$ NELSON