000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030959
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 1008 MB AT 12N118W HAS 
ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE FROM 5N TO 17N.  NUMEROUS MODERATE 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY SW QUADRANT HAS SURVIVED 
STRONG NLY SHEAR AND DRY ENVIRONMENT TO THE N MAINTAINING LOW 
LEVEL SWIRL. SHEAR EXPECTED TO DECREASE BUT DRIER AIR AND COLDER 
SST LIE AHEAD IN ITS PATH WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF EXTENDED LIFE.   

SECOND SWIRL ALONG ITCZ 1009 MB CENTERED AT 11N136W LOSING DEEP 
CONVECTION RAPIDLY AS DRY AIR ENTRAINS AND COLDER SST HINDERS 
DEVELOPMENT...EASTERLY SHEAR ALOFT NOT HELPING EITHER.  LITTLE 
OR NO POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 5N MOVING W AT 15 KT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OCCURS ALONG ITCZ WITHIN 240 NM E 
OF AXIS.  ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AT NORTHERN 
PORTION OF WAVE OVER PORTIONS OF BAY OF CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. 

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 9N83W  12N118W  9N123W 
11N131W  11N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF 
AXIS E OF 93W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM 
OF AXIS FROM 93W TO 110W. 

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 12N139W COVERS 
ENTIRE AREA W OF 115W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS DUE TO MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT MAINTAINS REGION N OF 14N CLEAR OF DEEP 
CONVECTION.  ITCZ LOSES MUCH OF ITS CONVECTION W OF 130W DUE TO 
ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR MASS. 

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PARALLELS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST 
WITH DRY AIR ALSO ALONG AXIS N OF 17N WITH CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 
18N109W.  

MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 15N91W OVER GUATEMALA PRODUCING 
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM TROPICAL WAVE 
ALONG BAY OF CAMPECHE AND TO THE SE ALONG ENTIRE CENTRAL AMERICA 
COUNTRIES. 

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES WELL N OF AREA HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 
15N105W.  DRY AIR SWEEPS DOWN ALONG COAST OF CALIFORNIA ON BRISK 
NORTHWESTERLIES EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN WITHIN 24 HRS AS RIDGE 
DRIFTS E.  

STRONG WINDS ACROSS GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS GALE 
FORCE WINDS OVER SW CARIBBEAN SEA BEGIN DIMINISHING NEXT 24 HRS.

$$
WALLY BARNES