000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030326
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 117W FROM 5N TO 15N IS MOVING W 12-15 KT. 
THE LAST VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL 
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 12.5N117W WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE SW OF THE LOW 
LEVEL CENTER AND CONFINED TO WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT OF 
THIS LOW LEVEL CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING 
NORTHERLY SHEAR WHICH IS INHIBITING ANY DEVELOPMENT AT THIS 
TIME.   

A WELL DEFINED SWIRL IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ WITH A BROAD AREA 
OF LOW PRES CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR 12N135W. CONVECTIVE ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS LOW HAS DECREASED MARKEDLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH 
ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM IN THE S 
SEMICIRCLE. UNTIL ONE OF THESE SYSTEMS BECOMES THE DOMINANT 
SYSTEM...THERE IS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W N OF 5N IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W AT 
15 KT BASED ON A 24 HOUR MOTION. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS OCCURRING ALONG THE ITCZ WHERE 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS ARE INDICATED WITHIN 120 NM W 
AND 240 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS 
OCCURRING AT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 7N78W 10N106W 12N115W 9N124W 
12N134W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM 
OF THE AXIS E OF 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 109W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE E-CENTRAL PACIFIC STEMMING FROM 
A DEEP CYCLONE NEAR 49N144W WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING S 
TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW IS SW OVER THE 
DISCUSSION AREA W OF A LINE FROM 32N125W TO 15N140W. 

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA S OF 25N W OF 117W
WITH A COUPLE OF CENTERS NOTED NEAR 13N119W AND 16N131W. THE 
OVERALL FLOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW AND AN EXPANDING QUASI-STATIONARY CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 
18N107W AND WAS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 105W 
AND 124W. A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDS N TO BEYOND 32N123W WITH 
ANOTHER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO NEAR 
10N147W AND A RIDGE EXTENDS SE TO A SHARP CREST NEAR 10N105W. 

DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WAS NOTED OVER THE E PACIFIC SE OF THE 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 18N107W AND WAS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS E OF 100W. THERE WERE 
INDICATIONS OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR 
10N95W. 

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 34N136W 1026 MB RIDGES SE INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N130W TO 22N115W. BROKEN LOCALLY 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS OBSERVED ROUGHLY W OF LINE 14N132W 
32N124W EXCEPT FOR CLEARING ALONG 28N W OF 133W.

GAP WINDS...THE ONLY AREA OF SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND ACTIVITY IS 
OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WHERE 20 KT WINDS WERE NOTED. 
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL 48 HOURS AS 
INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF WIND FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA POUR THROUGH 
THE CORDILLERA CHONTENELA.

$$
COBB