000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022114
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUL 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SEVERAL WELL DEFINED SWIRLS ARE NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ WITH A 
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR 10N124W. SOME 
CONVECTIVE BANDING WAS NOTED WITH THIS LOW. ANOTHER LOW 
DESCRIBED BELOW WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
115W/116W. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UNTIL ONE OF 
THESE SYSTEMS BECOMES THE DOMINANT SYSTEM...THERE IS LITTLE 
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W/89W N OF 5N IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 
AT 15-18 KT BASED ON A 24 HOUR MOTION. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS OCCURRING ALONG THE ITCZ. 
 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 115W/116W FROM 5N TO 15N IS MOVING W 15 KT. 
THERE WAS AN ADJUSTMENT OF THE WAVE POSITION THIS MORNING BASED 
ON FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES. MOST RECENT VISIBLE IMAGES CONFIRM THE 
ADJUSTMENT WAS CORRECT WITH A WELL DEFINED SWIRL NOTED NEAR 
12N116W BUT WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
SHEARED OFF TO THE SW OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 8N78W 10N100W 11N116W 
9N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120-180 NM OF 
THE AXIS OF 100W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 126W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE E-CENTRAL PACIFIC STEMMING FROM 
A DEEP CYCLONE NEAR 48N145W WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING S 
TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW IS SW OVER THE 
DISCUSSION AREA W OF A LINE FROM 32N125W TO 15N140W. 

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA S OF 23N W OF 117W
WITH A COUPLE OF CENTERS NOTED NEAR 13N119W AND 15N130W. THE 
OVERALL FLOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW AND AN EXPANDING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 18N107W AND 
WAS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 105W AND 126W.   
A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDS N TO BEYOND 32N123W WITH ANOTHER RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING SW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO NEAR 10N147W AND A 
RIDGE EXTENDS SE TO A SHARP CREST NEAR 10N105W. 

DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WAS NOTED OVER THE E PACIFIC SE OF THE 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 18N107W AND WAS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 100W. THERE WERE INDICATIONS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR 10N95W. 

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 34N136W 1026 MB RIDGES SE INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N130W TO 22N115W. BROKEN LOCALLY 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS OBSERVED ROUGHLY W OF LINE 14N132W 
32N124W EXCEPT FOR CLEARING ALONG 28N W OF 133W.

GAP WINDS...THE ONLY AREA OF SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND ACTIVITY IS 
OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WHERE 20 KT WINDS WERE NOTED. 
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS AS 
INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF WIND FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA   

$$
COBB