000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021600 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN JUL 02 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... LOW PRES NEAR 12N132W 1009 MB REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND ITS WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT IS SHRINKING AS IT TRACKS W UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE THAT NOW CRESTS NEAR 11N147W. THEREAFTER INCREASING SW SHEAR AND COLDER SURFACE WATERS WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDING W OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER SUPPORTS MONITORING...BUT THESE BURSTS CONTINUE WITHIN THE BROAD ITCZ. SEVERAL CYCLONIC SWIRLS ARE NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR 11N122W. A SWIRL NEAR 12N125W MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE BANDING LAST NIGHT BUT THE CONVECTION HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY DISSIPATED THIS MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...A CYCLONIC SWIRL NEAR 10N120W IS BEGINNING SHOW SIGNS OF BANDING. BUT...AN EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION IS NOTED NEAR 11N115W ASSOCIATED WITH A RE-LOCATED TROPICAL WAVE. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE AND ADJUSTMENTS TO GRAPHICS AND TEXT FORECASTS ARE LIKELY WHEN ONE OF THESE CYCLONIC SWIRLS BECOMES THE DOMINATE FEATURE...POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN MENTION OF POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM OUR MARINE FORECASTS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W N OF 5N IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W AT 18 KT. SEVERAL POSITION ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE W UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE. AT THE MOMENT ONLY SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT TO CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED E TO ALONG 113W AT 12Z BASED ON THIS MORNINGS 1KM VISIBLE IMAGERY...BUT THE ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE AFTER THE 12 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND 24 HOUR GRAPHICS WERE DISSEMINATED. ..ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 9N78W 8N99W 12N124W 12N133W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 6N77W 11N111W 10N140W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONGWAVE TROUGH HAS BECOME DOMINATE OVER THE NE PACIFIC STEMMING FROM A DEEP CYCLONE NEAR 47N146W WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE UPPER FLOW IS SW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF A LINE 32N125W 15N140W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 12N118W. A RIDGE EXTENDS N TO BEYOND 32N123W AND MERGES WITH A BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE N AMERICA BETWEEN 127W AND 85W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO NEAR 11N147W AND A RIDGE EXTENDS SE TO A SHARP CREST NEAR 10N107W. ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 108W AND 144W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADS N UNDER THE RIDGE TO ALONG 22N BETWEEN 133W AND 118W THEN TURNS SE AND LATER NE THROUGH A STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA ...DESCRIBED BELOW...WITH THE MOISTURE CONTINUING NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL INTO A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SW OVER THE WESTERN N ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO A BASE STATIONARY NEAR PANAMA. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 27N114W WITH A TROUGH SE TO A BASE NEAR 11N102W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 12N92W... WITH ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING THE ITCZ E OF 104W. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 33N134W 1025 MB RIDGES SE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N130W TO 22N115W. BROKEN LOCALLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS OBSERVED ROUGHLY W OF LINE 14N132W 32N124W EXCEPT FOR CLEARING ALONG 28N W OF 133W. GAPS WINDS...N TO NE WINDS 15 KT DETECTED BY QSCAT PASS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENE WINDS 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ABOUT 30 HOURS UNTIL STRONG ELY WINDS WEAKEN UPSTREAM IN THE CARIBBEAN. $$ NELSON