000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020317 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT JUL 01 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... LOW PRES NEAR 12N130W HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN OVERALL ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND WARMED AND CONSISTS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER MAINLY IN THE W SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING AN AREA OF STABLE AIR TO THE WEST AS EVIDENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. IN ADDITION THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING AN AREA OF MODERATE SW SHEAR. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE 24 TO 36 HOURS...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY CONTINUES TO CLOSE AS THE SYSTEM TREKS WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W/83W N OF 7N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...HOWEVER SOME CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 115W/116W FROM 5N TO 15N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC ROTATION IS NOTED OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 112W AND 118W...GENERALLY WITHIN AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SAME AREA. AN AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL TURNING WITH A POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS LOCATED TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N122.5W. THE CONVECTION NOTED EARLIER WITH THIS AREA HAS DISSIPATED THUS ELIMINATING DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FOR NOW. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 139W FROM 5N TO 15N IS MOVING W 15 KT. THE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION NOTED EARLIER HAVE DISSIPATED AS WELL AS THE SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING SW SHEAR. ..ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 9N84W 10N105W 12N121W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 67W AND 109W...AND WITHIN 120-150 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 7N TO 10N W OF 135W. ...DISCUSSION... A SHEARING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 37N131W THROUGH ANOTHER CIRCULATION NEAR 22N141W TO A BASE NEAR 15N144W. A LARGE QUASI-STATIONARY ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N119W DOMINATES THE AREA S OF 23N W OF 115W. ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS NWD TO BEYOND 32N120W AND MERGES WITH A BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE WRN CONUS BETWEEN 100W AND 130W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO NEAR 13N140W AND A RIDGE EXTENDS SE TO A SHARP CREST NEAR 9N105W. ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADS N UNDER THE RIDGE TO ALONG 24N BETWEEN 135W AND 117W THEN TURNS E AND NE INTO A STATIONARY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OVER OLD MEXICO...DESCRIBED BELOW...WITH THE MOISTURE CONTINUING NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL INTO A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SW OVER THE WESTERN N ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO A BASE NEAR PANAMA. A STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR 21N102W WITH A TROUGH SE TO A BASE NEAR 14N94W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 19N94W...ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE ITCZ E OF 90W. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N132W TO 18N110W. GAPS WINDS...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITHIN 18 HOURS OR SO. E TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS AS GALE CONDITIONS SLOWLY SUBSIDE UPSTREAM IN THE CARIBBEAN. $$ COBB