000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012126 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI JUN 30 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... LOW PRES NEAR 12N129W IS ATTEMPTING TO PULL N OF THE ITCZ THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ONCE AGAIN WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER MAINLY IN THE W SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING AN AREA OF STABLE AIR TO THE WEST AS EVIDENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. IN ADDITION THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING AN AREA OF MODERATE SW SHEAR. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE 24 TO 36 HOURS...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS GRADUALLY CLOSING AS THE SYSTEM TREKS WESTWARD AT 15-17 KNOTS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W N OF 7N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE EAST PACIFIC AND PANAMA...HOWEVER THE WAVE APPEARS TO ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 114W FROM 5N TO 15N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC ROTATION IS NOTED AT 9N ALONG 113W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N121W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ORGANIZING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IN BANDS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS MAY COMMENCE ON THIS SYSTEM THIS EVENING. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 138W FROM 5N TO 15N IS MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED AT 12.5N138W WITH INTERMITTENT BUT SMALL BURSTS OF CONVECTION. ..ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 9N84W 10N105W 13N124W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 103W..AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 110W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N W OF 133W. ...DISCUSSION... A SHEARING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N134W 18N142W TO A BASE NEAR 10N148W. A LARGE QUASI-STATIONARY ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N118W DOMINATES THE AREA S OF 23N W OF 115W. ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS NWD TO BEYOND 32N121W AND MERGES WITH A BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE BETWEEN 127W AND 97W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO NEAR 13N140W AND A RIDGE EXTENDS SE TO A SHARP CREST NEAR 9N105W. ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 105W AND 117W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADS N UNDER THE RIDGE TO ALONG 24N BETWEEN 135W AND 117W THEN TURNS E AND NE INTO A STATIONARY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OVER OLD MEXICO...DESCRIBED BELOW...WITH THE MOISTURE CONTINUING NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL INTO A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SW OVER THE WESTERN N ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO A BASE NEAR PANAMA. A STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR 21N102W WITH A TROUGH SE TO A BASE NEAR 14N94W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 19N94W...ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE ITCZ E OF 90W. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N132W TO 18N110W. GAPS WINDS...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH NLY WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY 24 HOURS. ENE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ABOUT 30 HOURS AS GALE CONDITIONS SLOWLY SUBSIDE UPSTREAM IN THE CARIBBEAN. $$ COBB