000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011556
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUN 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

LOW PRES NEAR 12N127W APPEARS TO BE PULLING N OF THE ITCZ THIS 
MORNING. A LATE NIGHT CONVECTIVE BURST W OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER 
HAS DECREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS WITHIN ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE 
AND ISOLATED STRONG...ROUGHLY WITHIN 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE. 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W N OF 7N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AT 
7N80W. THE WAVE APPEARS TO ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE 
CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 113W FROM 5N TO 15N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
BROAD CYCLONIC ROTATION IS NOTED AT 9N ALONG 113W WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM E SEMICIRCLE. ANOTHER 
CYCLONIC SWIRL IS NOTED E OF THE AXIS NEAR 13N109W SUGGESTING 
THE WAVE MAY HAVE SPUN OFF A SMALL LOW LEVEL CYCLONE. 
CONVECTION NEAR THIS SPIN OFF VORTEX HAS DECREASED THE PAST 2 
HOURS.  

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 137W FROM 5N TO 15N IS MOVING W 15 KT. 
CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED AT 12.5N138W WITH INTERMITTENT BURSTS 
OF CONVECTION. 

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 9N80W 9N93W 12N127W 14N137W 
12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 7N83W 7N97W 13N122W 12N135W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS ALONG 32N141W THROUGH A CYCLONE AT 
31N14W WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING S ALONG 20N142W TO A BASE NEAR 
10N149W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 15N118W. 
A RIDGE EXTENDS N TO BEYOND 36N125W AND MERGES WITH A BROAD 
LONGWAVE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE BETWEEN 
127W AND 97W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO 
NEAR 13N140W AND A RIDGE EXTENDS SE TO A SHARP CREST NEAR 
10N110W. ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 142W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS 
MOISTURE SPREADS N UNDER THE RIDGE TO ALONG 24N BETWEEN 135W AND 
117W THEN TURNS E AND NE INTO A STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH OVER OLD 
MEXICO...DESCRIBED BELOW...WITH THE MOISTURE CONTINUING NE 
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL INTO A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SW 
OVER THE WESTERN N ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO A BASE NEAR 
PANAMA.    

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR 21N104W WITH A 
TROUGH SE TO A BASE NEAR 14N94W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS 
CENTERED AT 19N94W...ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE ITCZ 
E OF 90W. 

AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 
32N132W TO 18N110W. BROKEN LOCALLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS 
OBSERVED ROUGHLY W OF LINE 13N136W 32N120W EXCEPT FOR CLEARING 
NEAR 27N138W. 

GAPS WINDS...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT DETECTED BY EARLY MORNING 
QSCAT PASS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH NLY WINDS EXPECTED 
TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT. ENE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT IN 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ABOUT 30 HOURS AS A 
GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUE UPSTREAM IN THE CARIBBEAN.

$$
NELSON