000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010329
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUL 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

LOW PRES NEAR 10N124W REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH SOME
BANDING OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED 
WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE 
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM THIS EVENING
WITH INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THE CONVECTION 
HAS SHIFTED AROUND TO THE W SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM 
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE S SIDE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE AT THE UPPER LEVELS WHICH IS PROVIDING A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 109W FROM 5N TO 15N IS MOVING W AT 12 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS GENERALLY ALONG THE ITCZ. 
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER W TO NW SHEAR WHICH IS 
INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT AT THE MOMENT.
 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 133W FROM 5N TO 15N IS MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK 
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED EARLIER AT THE NORTHERN END OF 
THE WAVE NEAR 14N132W HAS SHEARED OUT IN MODERATE TO STRONG  
SWLY SHEAR. IN ADDITION THE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION 
HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE WAVE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 10N85W 8N95W 10N110W 13N133W 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120-150 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 116W...AND WITHIN 60 NM 
OF 10.5N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE COAST OF PANAMA BETWEEN 81W AND 82W.

...DISCUSSION...
RATHER SHARP MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WELL 
DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 31N142W SWD TO A BASE NEAR 
12N142W. A RATHER EXPANSIVE QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 15N118W DOMINATES THE AREA BETWEEN 110W AND 
130W. MEAN RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS N TO BEYOND 32N120W AND MERGES 
WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE STATIONARY OVER WESTERN N AMERICA. A RIDGE 
AXIS ALSO EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 10N140W AND A RIDGE EXTENDS SE TO A 
SHARP CREST NEAR 10N104W...THUS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 100W AND 130W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE 
SPREADS N UNDER THE RIDGE TO ALONG 25N BETWEEN 120W AND 107W 
THEN TURNS NE INTO A STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH OVER OLD 
MEXICO...DESCRIBED BELOW...AND CONTINUES NE ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND FL INTO A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN N ATLC.    

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR 22N103W WITH A 
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH TO A BASE NEAR 13N94W. AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 17N86W...ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE IS 
ENHANCING THE ITCZ E OF 90W. 

AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 
32N133W TO 20N108W. 

GAP WINDS...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY 24 
HOURS. E TO NE WINDS OF 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE ALSO 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITHIN 24-30 HOURS.  

$$
COBB