000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUN 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

LOW PRES NEAR 11N120W REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH 
DECENT BANDING OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
NOTED WITHIN 210 NM OVER THE N AND WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE S 
SEMICIRCLES OF THE LOW. THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT THE UPPER LEVELS WHICH IS 
PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. 
IN ADDITION GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY 
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W FROM 5N TO 15N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 
180-240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS GENERALLY ALONG THE 
ITCZ. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER W TO NW SHEAR WHICH IS 
INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT AT THE MOMENT.
 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 132W FROM 5N TO 15N IS MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK 
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED AT THE NORTHERN END OF THE 
WAVE NEAR 14N132W WITH INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION 
DEVELOPING. THE WAVE IS ENCOUNTERING SWLY SHEAR WHICH SHOULD 
INHIBIT ANY DEVELOPMENT.  

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 7N78W 9N94W 8N103W 10N121W 
10N132W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
120-150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 114W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 14N132W 11N140W...AND 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 83W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...DISCUSSION...
RATHER SHARP MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WELL 
DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 32N144W SWD TO A BASE NEAR 
12N143W. AN RATHER EXPANSIVE QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 15N120W DOMINATES THE AREA BETWEEN 110W AND 
130W. MEAN RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS N TO BEYOND 32N122W AND MERGES 
WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE STATIONARY OVER WESTERN N AMERICA. A RIDGE 
AXIS ALSO EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 10N140W AND A RIDGE EXTENDS SE TO A 
SHARP CREST NEAR 10N104W...THUS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 100W AND 130W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE 
SPREADS N UNDER THE RIDGE TO ALONG 25N BETWEEN 120W AND 107W 
THEN TURNS NE INTO A STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH OVER OLD 
MEXICO...DESCRIBED BELOW...AND CONTINUES NE ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND FL INTO A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN N ATLC.    

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR 23N103W WITH A 
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH TO A BASE NEAR 13N95W. AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 17N86W...ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE IS 
ENHANCING THE ITCZ E OF 90W. 

AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 
32N133W TO 20N108W. BROKEN LOCALLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS 
OBSERVED W OF LINE 14N132W 30N116W.

GAPS WINDS...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY 24-30 
HOURS. ENE WINDS 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ALSO EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.  

$$
COBB