000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301606
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUN 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

LOW PRES NEAR 10N120W EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION PRIMARILY ENHANCED WITHIN 
180 NM OVER N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS 
LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106.5W FROM 5N TO 15N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED W OF THE WAVE 
AXIS WITHIN  60 NM OF 9N109W. THE WAVE IS ENCOUNTERING NW SHEAR 
WHICH IS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT AT THE MOMENT.
 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 131W FROM 5N TO 15N IS MOVING W 15 KT. 
CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED AT 13.5N131.5W WITH INTERMITTENT 
BURSTS OF CONVECTION. 

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 10N78W 7N106W 10N120W 
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 
7N78W 11N116W AND ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 119W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS ALONG 32N142W TO A BASE NEAR 11N142W. 
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 13N114W. A RIDGE 
EXTENDS N TO BEYOND 32N125W AND MERGES WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE 
STATIONARY OVER WESTERN N AMERICA. A RIDGE AXIS ALSO EXTENDS SW 
TO NEAR 10N140W AND A RIDGE EXTENDS SE TO A SHARP CREST NEAR 
10N104W...THUS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 103W 
AND 133W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADS N UNDER THE 
RIDGE TO ALONG 25N BETWEEN 120W AND 107W THEN TURNS NE INTO A 
STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH OVER OLD MEXICO...DESCRIBED BELOW...AND 
CONTINUES NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL INTO A TROUGH OVER 
THE WESTERN N ATLC.    

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR 23N103W WITH A 
TROUGH TO A BASE NEAR 13N94W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED 
AT 16N87W...ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE ITCZ E OF 
90W. 

AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 
32N133W TO 20N107W. BROKEN LOCALLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS 
OBSERVED W OF LINE 14N132W 30N116W.

GAPS WINDS...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT DETECTED BY EARLY MORNING 
QSCAT PASS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH NLY WINDS EXPECTED 
TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY 36 HOURS. ENE WINDS 20 KT IN THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW 20 KT BY 36 HOURS.  

$$
NELSON/MUNDELL