000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301015 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI JUN 30 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... LOW PRES NEAR 11N118W...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 360 NM SW AND 240 NM NW QUADRANTS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW. OUTFLOW LOOKS PRETTY GOOD OVER THIS SYSTEM...AND OVERALL CLOUD/CONVECTION IS BECOMING SOMEWHAT MORE SYMMETRICAL WITH TIME AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 16 KT. SINCE THE LOW IS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR IT TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W FROM 5N TO 15N IS MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE WAVE MOSTLY MIXED IN WITH THE ITCZ CONVECTION. THE WAVE IS ENCOUNTERING NWLY SHEAR WHICH IS INHIBITING IF FROM DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 129W/130W FROM 5N TO 15N IS MOVING W 17 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 12.5N130W WHICH IS WHERE A POSSIBLE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC IS NOTED. HOWEVER THIS WAVE IS PASSING BENEATH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THEREFORE THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. ..ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG...7N78W 8N88W 9N100W 10N110W 12N115W 10N121W 11N129W 9N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 101W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 92W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 131W-136W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 30-60 NM OF THE ITCZ E OF 86W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS... BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA NORTHWEST OF LINE 16N140W 24N130W TO 32N124W. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE DISPERSED IN BETWEEN PATCHES OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 22N WEST OF 120W. NARROW NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO TO A NEARLY STATIONARY CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 22N103W. MOSTLY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN NORTH OF 25N EAST OF 120W TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT AS A MID/UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FORMS FROM THE TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SEA OF CORTEZ SUN AND MOVES WESTWARD TO NEAR 20N112W BY MON. REMAINDER OF AREA IS UNDER RIDGING AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WITH RIDGE EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS 11N142W AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 10N95W WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CENTER LOCATED OVER THE LOW PRES MENTIONED ABOVE. THE RIDGE HAS A CREST NORTH TO 29N117W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA SE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH TO 95W. THE FLOW PATTERN AROUND THIS AREA OF RIDGING CONTINUES TO PUMP ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM ITCZ DEBRIS BUT DISSIPATES UPON REACHING DRY AIR FROM TROUGH OVER BAJA. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE OVER NICARAGUA DOMINATES THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 95W AND IS ADVECTING WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW COVERS THE AREA SOUTH OF 9N EAST OF 91W. AT THE SURFACE... RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N131W TO 24N119W TO 22N115W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 19N WEST OF 116W. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW 20 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS OVER SW CARIBBEAN BASIN ARE EXPECTED TO SPILL OVER GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO SPREADING AS FAR W AS 110W IN 24 HOURS WITH NE-E 20 KT WINDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ AGUIRRE