000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300325
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUN 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 117W FROM 5N 
TO 15N HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL 
HOURS WITH THE MOST RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING 
A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 12N117W...SUGGESTIVE OF 
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS 
WERE STARTED BASED ON INCREASING BANDING FEATURES. THE WAVE AND 
LOW ARE MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME 
A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.   

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W/104W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W 15 KT 
BASED ON 24 HOUR MOTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
IS OCCURRING ALONG AND WELL EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 94W NEAR 
THE ITCZ. WAVE IS ENCOUNTERING NWLY SHEAR WHICH IS INHIBITING 
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.
 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 127W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W 15 KT BASED ON 
24 HOUR MOTION. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IN 
THE MID CLOUD FIELD. HOWEVER THIS WAVE IS PASSING BENEATH AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AN 
ENVIRONMENT NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG...9N84W 10N104W 12N112W 
11N130W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
90-120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 94W AND 104W...WITHIN 60 NM OF 
12.2N128.5W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 110W...AND W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 125W 
WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE NOTED. NARROW NEGATIVELY 
TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SEA OF CORTEZ 
SE ALONG THE W COAST OF MEXICO TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 
23N103W IS NEARLY STATIONARY. 

REMAINDER OF AREA UNDER WEAK RIDGE AT MID/UPPER LEVELS.  
WESTERNMOST FRINGES OF RIDGE NEAR 128W ADVECTING TROPICAL 
MOISTURE FROM ITCZ DEBRIS NE BUT DISSIPATES UPON REACHING DRY 
AIR FROM TROUGH OVER BAJA.

ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 15N112W IS PROVIDING 
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
AND LOW PRESSURE NEAR 12N117W. ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
COVERS THE AREA S OF 20N BETWEEN 95W AND 125W. ANOTHER 
ANTICYCLONE OVER NICARAGUA DOMINATES THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 
95W AND IS ADVECTING WARM MOIST AIR FROM CARIBBEAN SEA INTO E 
PAC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA N OF 17N W OF 110W.  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW 20 KT 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS OVER SW CARIBBEAN 
BASIN ARE EXPECTED TO SPILL OVER GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO 
SPREADING AS FAR W AS 95W-100W IN 24 HOURS WITH WINDS REACHING 
20-25 KT AND GUSTY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
COBB