000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292138
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUN 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
RE-LOCATED TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W 15 
KT BASED ON RELOCATION AND 24 HOUR MOTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG AND WELL EAST OF THE WAVE 
AXIS ALONG ITCZ. WAVE IS ENCOUNTERING NW SHEAR WHICH IS 
INHIBITING ANY DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 116W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W 15 KT BASED 
ON 24 HOUR MOTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THERE ARE 
HINTS OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY 
AT THE LOWER LEVELS AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING MONITORED FOR 
SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. 

TROPICAL WAVE RE-LOCATED ALONG 126W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W 15 
KT BASED ON 24 HOUR MOTION AND 20 KT ON SHORTER TERM MOTION.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 
NM W OF THE WEAVE AXIS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES 
CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD. HOWEVER...UPPER 
CONDITIONS NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG...9N84W 10N110W 12N125W 
7N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90-120 
NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 105W...WITHIN 120-150 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 108W AND 121W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W 
AND 129W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE AXIS 
W OF 129W.  

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 125W 
WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE NOTED. NARROW MID/UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SEA OF CORTEZ SE ALONG THE W 
COAST OF MEXICO TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 24N104W IS NEARLY 
STATIONARY. 

REMAINDER OF AREA UNDER WEAK RIDGE AT MID/UPPER LEVELS.  
WESTERNMOST FRINGES OF RIDGE NEAR 128W ADVECTING TROPICAL 
MOISTURE FROM ITCZ DEBRIS NE BUT DISSIPATES UPON REACHING DRY 
AIR FROM TROUGH OVER BAJA.

ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N110W IS PROVIDING 
A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL 
WAVE ALONG 116W. ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA S 
OF 20N BETWEEN 95W AND 125W. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE OVER NICARAGUA 
DOMINATES THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 95W AND IS ADVECTING WARM 
MOIST AIR FROM CARIBBEAN SEA INTO E PAC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1032 MB WELL NW OF AREA HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 
17N115W. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN STRENGTH AND 
AREA NEXT 24 HRS.  GALE FORCE WINDS OVER SW CARIBBEAN BASIN 
EXPECTED TO SPILL OVER GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO SPREADING 
AS FAR W AS 95W-100W IN 24 HOURS. 

$$
COBB