000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291541
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUN 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97N N OF 5N MOVE W 12 KT.  INCREASINGLY 
ADVERSE NW UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW DIMINISHING CONVECTION ALONG 
WAVE AXIS N OF 10N.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR WAVE AXIS ALONG ITCZ. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W 12 KT.  DEEP 
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE AS WAVE APPROACHES REGION OF 
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NEAR 118-120W.  SYSTEM 
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 121W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVE W 10 KT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 13N WITHIN 180 NM W OF WAVE.  
UPPER CONDITIONS NOT VERY FAVORABLE AND GETTING INCREASINGLY 
AGAINST SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG...9N84W  11N104W  11N126W 
9N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 
NM OF AXIS FROM 94W TO 103W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS W OF 122W. 
SCATTERED STRONG AND INCREASING CONVECTION FROM 112W TO 118W.  

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N136W TO 15N133W.  VERY DRY AIR 
MASS DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 240 NM OF TROUGH AXIS.  

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WRN 
MEXICO N OF 20N ALSO BRINGS DRY AIR TO THE NRN HALF OF MEXICO.

REMAINDER OF AREA UNDER WEAK RIDGE AT MID/UPPER LEVELS.  
WESTERNMOST FRINGES OF RIDGE NEAR 128W ADVECTING TROPICAL 
MOISTURE FROM ITCZ DEBRIS NE BUT DISSIPATES UPON REACHING DRY 
AIR FROM TROUGH OVER BAJA.

MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CENTER OVER NICARAGUA HELPS IN 
ADVECTING WARM MOIST AIR FROM CARIBBEAN SEA INTO E PAC ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1032 MB WELL NW OF AREA HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 
17N115W.  ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION UNDER RIDGE UMBRELLA.  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN STRENGTH AND 
AREA NEXT 24 HRS.  GALE FORCE WINDS OVER SW CARIBBEAN BASIN 
EXPECTED TO SPILL OVER GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO SPREADING 
AS FAR W AS 100W IN 24 HOURS. 

$$
WALLY BARNES