000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290921
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUN 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96N N OF 5N MOVE W 12 KT. COOLER SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT HAVE 
STABILIZED THE AREA TO SUCH AN EXTENT THAT NO CONVECTION IS 
OCCURRING NEAR THE WAVE AXIS N OF 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING NEAR THE INTERSECTION 
OF THE WAVE AXIS AND THE ITCZ. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 111W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 15N WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
WAVE HAS DECREASED DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS.  THE CONVECTION 
WAS NOT ORGANIZED.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 120W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVE W 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 15N WITHIN 180 NM W OF WAVE HAS 
DECREASED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS.  THE CONVECTION WAS NOT 
ORGANIZED.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG...5N77W 12N110W 11N130W 
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 10N99.6W AND 12.5N123.6W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 
11N TO 13N FROM 112W TO 117.5W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF A LINE THROUGH 
32N120W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 133W.  THE TROUGH AREA IS DRY IN THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IMPLYING UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  THE 
SKIES ARE CLEAR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH BROKEN TO 
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOW LEVELS.

ANOTHER MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER WESTERN MEXICO AND 
EXTENDS WEST TO A LINE THROUGH 32N117W 22N110W TO 20N105W.  
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE OVER MEXICO.

REMAINDER OF AREA IS COVERED BY WEAK RIDGE IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS.  MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION IS LOCATED 
WITHIN THE ITCZ EXCEPT FOR SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM THE ITCZ NEAR 
133W TO 28N120W TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 100W WHERE SOME UPPER 
CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD NORTH FROM THE ITCZ CONVECTION.

SURFACE...
N OF 15N WEST OF 115W WEAK RIDGE IS ANALYZED.  ELSEWHERE A BROAD 
TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

NE WINDS 20 KT ACROSS ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC EXPECTED TO 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN STRENGTH AND AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 42 HOURS. 
STRONG E WINDS OVER SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BASIN EXPECTED TO SPILL  
OVER GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO SPREADING AS FAR W AS 100W IN 
24 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREA BY 48 HOURS. 

$$
LL