000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290312
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUN 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95N N OF 5N MOVING W 10-12 KT BASED ON 24 
HOUR MOTION. COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE  
CURRENT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT HAVE STABILIZED THE AREA 
TO SUCH AN EXTENT THAT NO CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THE WAVE 
AXIS N OF 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
OCCURRING NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AXIS AND THE ITCZ. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W 10 KT BASED ON 
24 HOUR MOTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OCCURRING WITHIN 180-240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS AND N 
OF THE ITCZ. THE CONVECTION WAS DISORGANIZED.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 119W FROM 6N TO 16N MOVING W 10 KT BASED ON 
24 HOUR MOTION. A SMALL PATCH OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING 120 NM W OF THE NORTHERN END OF THE 
WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N121.5W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXITING THE AREA ALONG 140W FROM 5N TO 13N MOVING 
W 10 KT BASED ON 24 HOUR MOTION. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN VERY DRY 
AIR AND HOSTILE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT. 

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG...8N78W 10N100W 11N125W 
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 115W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 13N121.5W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 94W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 30N137W WAS DRIFTING 
EWD AND WAS PART OF A TROUGH THAT COVERED THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 
125W. ANOTHER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS WAS LOCATED TO THE SE OF THE
FIRST TROUGH AND EXTENDED THROUGH 24N127W TO 10N135W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WAS INDICATED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR 
AXIS. 

LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 15N109W HAS AN E-W ORIENTED 
RIDGE ALONG 15N ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO CARIBBEAN SEA.  
NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH/CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER WRN MEXICO NEAR 
25N107W WAS DRIFTING E. FLOW BETWEEN RIDGE AND CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION WAS ADVECTING ITCZ DEBRIS MOISTURE EWD S OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. ELY FLOW S OF THE RIDGE PROVIDING LARGE AREA OF
ADVERSE UPPER ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION 
ALONG ITCZ.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENSION CENTER AT 14N85W PROVIDES AREA OF 
DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA ENHANCING SCATTERED 
DEEP CONVECTION FROM 6N TO 10N E OF 90W.  

AT THE SURFACE...WEAKENING FRONT JUST N OF THE AREA TO NEAR 
31N138W WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE AREA. RIDGE EXTENDS SE TO 
18N110W RESTRICTING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS AND 
MAINTAINING STEADY FLOW OF NE TRADES WINDS W OF 130W. 

NE WINDS 20 KT ACROSS ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC EXPECTED TO 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN STRENGTH AND AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
STRONG E WINDS OVER SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BASIN EXPECTED TO SPILL  
OVER GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO SPREADING AS FAR W AS 100W IN 
24 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREA BY 48 HOURS. 

$$
COBB