000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUN 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94N N OF 6N MOVING W 10 KT BASED ON 24 HOUR 
MOTION. COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE  
CURRENT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT HAVE STABILIZED THE AREA 
TO SUCH AN EXTENT THAT NO CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THE WAVE 
AXIS. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 109W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W 10 KT BASED ON 
24 HOUR MOTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS AND N OF THE ITCZ. 
THE CONVECTION WAS DISORGANIZED.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 118W/119W FROM 6N TO 16N MOVING W 10 KT 
BASED ON 24 HOUR MOTION. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. SYSTEM APPROACHING 
AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION...BUT NO 
ORGANIZATION DETECTED YET.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 138W FROM 5N TO 13N MOVING W 10 KT BASED ON 
24 HOUR MOTION. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN VERY DRY AIR AND HOSTILE 
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT AT 
THIS TIME. 

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG...9N84W 10N105W 11N125W 
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 96W...AND BETWEEN 108W AND 112W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 
108W...AND BETWEEN 117W AND 121W. 

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 30N137W WAS DRIFTING 
EWD AND WAS PART OF A TROUGH THAT COVERED THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 
125W. ANOTHER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS WAS LOCATED TO THE SE OF THE
FIRST TROUGH AND EXTENDED THROUGH 24N127W TO 10N135W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WAS INDICATED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR 
AXIS. 

LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 15N109W HAS AN E-W ORIENTED 
RIDGE ALONG 15N ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO CARIBBEAN SEA.  
NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH/CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER WRN MEXICO NEAR 
25N107W WAS DRIFTING E. FLOW BETWEEN RIDGE AND CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION WAS ADVECTING ITCZ DEBRIS MOISTURE EWD S OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. ELY FLOW S OF THE RIDGE PROVIDING LARGE AREA OF
ADVERSE UPPER ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION 
ALONG ITCZ.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENSION CENTER AT 14N85W PROVIDES AREA OF 
DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA ENHANCING SCATTERED 
DEEP CONVECTION FROM 6N TO 10N E OF 90W.  

AT THE SURFACE...WEAKENING HIGH PRES CENTER 1029 MB WELL N OF 
REGION HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 18N110W RESTRICTING VERTICAL 
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS AND MAINTAINING STEADY FLOW OF NE TRADES 
WINDS W OF 130W. 

NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...POSSIBLY 
ASSISTED BY APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W...EXPECTED TO 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN STRENGTH AND AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
STRONG E WINDS OVER SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BASIN EXPECTED TO SPILL  
OVER GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO SPREADING AS FAR W AS 100W IN 
24 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREA BY 48 HOURS. 

$$
COBB