000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281548
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUN 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93N N OF 6N MOVE W 12 KT JUST ENTERED 
HOSTILE UPPER ENVIRONMENT TO SUSTAIN SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 10W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVE W 12 KT.  ISOLATED 
CONVECTION ALONG AND E OF WAVE AXIS.  NO ORGANIZATION DETECTED. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 117W FROM 6N TO 16N MOVE W 10 KT.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 16N WITHIN 90 NM OF 
AXIS.  SYSTEM APPROACHING AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE FAVORABLE FOR 
DEEP CONVECTION...BUT NO ORGANIZATION DETECTED YET.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 138W FROM 5N TO 13N MOVE W 10 KT EMBEDDED IN 
VERY DRY AIR AND HOSTILE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRON.  LITTLE OR NO 
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. 

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG...9N84W  10N117W  8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E 
OF 90W.  ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF 
AXIS FROM 97W TO 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED AT 32N137W HAS  
TROUGH DIG S TO 8N135N WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 300 NM OF 
AXIS IMPLYING UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.

BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED AT 14N107W HAS E-W RIDGE EXTEND 
E ALONG 14N ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO CARIBBEAN SEA.  RIDGE 
EFFECTIVELY CARRIES ITCZ DEBRIS MOISTURE NE BUT STILL TOO FAR 
FROM COAST OF CALIFORNIA.  EXTENSIVE RIDGE PROVIDES WIDE ADVERSE 
UPPER ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENSION CENTER AT 14N85W PROVIDES AREA OF 
DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA ENHANCING SCATTERED 
DEEP CONVECTION FROM 6N TO 10N E OF 90W.  

AT THE SURFACE...WEAKENING HIGH PRES CENTER 1029 MB WELL N OF 
REGION HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 18N110W RESTRICTING VERTICAL 
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS AND MAINTAINING STEADY FLOW OF BRISK NE 
WINDS W OF 132W. 

NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...POSSIBLY 
ASSISTED BY APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W...EXPECTED TO 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN STRENGTH AND AREA THROUGH NEXT 48 HOURS. 
STRONG E WINDS OVER SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BASIN EXPECTED TO SPILL  
OVER GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO SPREADING AS FAR W AS 94W 
IN 48 HRS. 

$$
WALLY BARNES