000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUN 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92N N OF 6N MOVE W 12 KT.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ.  NO ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTIVE 
PATTERN IS OBSERVED.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVE W 12 KT. ONLY 
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE.  NO ORGANIZATION TO THE 
CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS OBSERVED.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 116W FROM 6N TO 16N MOVE W 10 KT.  AN AREA 
OF SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
12.3N TO 14N FROM 116W TO 123W.  NO ORGANIZATION TO THE 
CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS OBSERVED.  

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 137W FROM 5N TO 13N MOVE W 10 KT.  NO 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...5N77W 7N105W 
10N120W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 13.2N121W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
31N140W.  ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM THE ITCZ 
NEAR 125W TO 20N127W TO 32N127W.  WITHIN THIS AREA VERY DRY AIR 
IS NOTED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS SOUTH OF 22N IMPLYING 
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  MODERATELY DRY AIR IS OBSERVED 
ELSEWHERE WITH CLEAR SKIES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS AND 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED NORTH OF 20N 
EAST OF 116W.  THIS AREA IS DRY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS 
IMPLYING UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE IN THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.  IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS IS FROM 24N TO 27N WITH CLEAR TO SCATTERED LOWER 
CLOUDS ELSEWHERE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM THE ITCZ 
CONVECTION IS SPREADING NORTH TO 20N FROM 110W TO 130W.     

DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT EAST OF 90W TO 80W IS ASSOCIATED WITH MULTI 
LEVEL CLOUDS AND AREAS OF CONVECTION.

SURFACE...
WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 110W.  ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH 
IS ANALYZED.

GAPS WINDS...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT IN AND TO THE SW OF THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH 48 HOURS. 
ENE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND THE GULF OF FONSECA...SPREADING AS FAR E AS 94W IN 
ABOUT 48 HOURS.  

$$
LL