000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280338
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUN 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91N N OF 7N IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W AT 
12 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING 
NEAR 12N94.5W ALONG THE N SIDE OF THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W HAS MOVED W AT 12 KT THE PAST 24 HOURS. 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IS ENHANCED WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE 
WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 115.5W FROM 7N TO 15N MOVING W AT 10 KT.  
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IS STRETCHED N ALONG THE WAVE TO THE N 
OF 9N AND ENHANCED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE WITH 
BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING AT 11N.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 136W FROM 5N TO 13N MOVING W AT 9 KT THE 
PAST 24 HOURS. WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE 
AXIS AT NEAR 8.5N BUT CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED PAST 24 HOURS AS 
WAVE HAS MOVED W OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 7N77W 10N90W 11N117W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 4N80W 7N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 
NM OF LINE 11N93W 12N119W 8N135W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE ALONG 135W EXTENDS THROUGH A STATIONARY UPPER 
CYCLONE AT 31N137.5W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S THROUGH A SMALL 
UPPER CYCLONE 20N134W AND CONTINUING S OVER THE ITCZ AT 7N135W 
TO THE EQUATOR AT 133W. THE CYCLONE AND THE TROUGH WILL 
EFFECTIVELY SHIFT W OF 140W AS ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS SE AND 
APPROACHES THE W BOUNDARY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 12N112W. A RIDGE 
EXTENDS N TO BEYOND 32N130W AND MERGES WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE 
SHIFTING E ACROSS WESTERN N AMERICA. WITHIN THE DISCUSSION 
AREA...THE ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 131W AND 116W. A RIDGE AXIS ALSO EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 
10N131W AND A RIDGE EXTENDS SE TO 11N108W...THUS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 130W. THE RESULTANT 
DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADS N UNDER THE RIDGE TO NEAR 25N120W WITH 
SOME MOISTURE CONTINUING E AND NE THROUGH A STATIONARY UPPER 
TROUGH...DESCRIBED BELOW...AND ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AND 
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS DISSIPATING NEAR 32N120W WITH AN UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDING SE THROUGH A SMALL CYCLONE AT 19N105W TO NEAR 
15N102W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO TO BASE NEAR 18N93W...BUT IS FILLING RAPIDLY. 

AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 19N97W.
ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE 
AREA FROM 2N TO 20N BETWEEN 90W AND 80W. DEBRIS MOISTURE IS 
SPREADING N AND NE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AND THE BAHAMAS AND 
CONTINUING N ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE CONUS. 
ADDITIONALLY...SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING S ACROSS 
THE EQUATOR E OF 105W.  

AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 
30N140W TO 20N107W. LOCALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS OBSERVED N 
OF 15N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W.

GAPS WINDS...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT IN AND TO THE SW OF THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH 48 HOURS. 
ENE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND THE GULF OF FONSECA...SPREADING AS FAR E AS 94W IN 
ABOUT 48 HOURS.  

$$
NELSON