000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272155
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUN 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE WAS RELOCATED TO POSITION FROM 7N87W TO 20N88W 
BASED ON UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE 
MOVEMENT IS ESTIMATED TO BE W AT 12 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W HAS MOVED W AT 12 KT THE PAST 24 HOURS. 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IS ENHANCED WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE WAVE 
AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 114.5W FROM 6N TO 15N MOVING W AT 10 KT.  
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IS STRETCHED N ALONG THE WAVE TO THE N 
OF 9N AND ENHANCED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 134.5W FROM 5N TO 13N MOVING W AT 9 KT THE 
PAST 24 HOURS. WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE 
AXIS AT NEAR 9N BUT CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED PAST 24 HOURS AS 
WAVE HAS MOVED W OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 7N77W 10N85W 10N120W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
3N79W 7N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE ALONG 135W EXTENDS THROUGH A STATIONARY 
UPPER CYCLONE AT 31N137W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S THROUGH A 
SMALL UPPER CYCLONE 20N134W AND CONTINUING S OVER THE ITCZ AT 
7N135W TO THE EQUATOR AT 132W. THE CYCLONE AND THE TROUGH WILL 
GRADUALLY FILL DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL UPPER RIDGE 
TO W HAS BEEN SHIFTING W AND IS NOW ALONG 149W AND PROGGED TO 
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 13N113W. A RIDGE 
EXTENDS N TO BEYOND 32N130W AND EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH A 
LONGWAVE RIDGE SHIFTING E ACROSS WESTERN N AMERICA. WITHIN THE 
DISCUSSION AREA...THE ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 132W AND 116W. A RIDGE AXIS ALSO EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 
10N131W AND A RIDGE EXTENDS SE TO 11N109W...THUS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 130W. THE RESULTANT 
DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADS N UNDER THE RIDGE TO NEAR 25N120W WITH 
SOME MOISTURE CONTINUING E AND NE THROUGH A STATIONARY UPPER 
TROUGH...DESCRIBED BELOW...AND ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AND 
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS DISSIPATING NEAR 31N120W WITH AN UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO 16N103W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ACROSS 
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO BASE NEAR 18N93W...BUT IS FILLING 
RAPIDLY. 

AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 19N95W.
ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE 
AREA FROM 2N TO 20N BETWEEN 90W AND 80W. DEBRIS MOISTURE IS 
SPREADING N AND NE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AND THE BAHAMAS AND 
CONTINUING N ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE CONUS. 
ADDITIONALLY...SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING S ACROSS 
THE EQUATOR E OF 107W.  

AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 
30N140W TO 23N113W. LOCALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS OBSERVED N 
OF 13N BETWEEN 118W AND 134W.

GAPS WINDS...NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT IN AND TO SW OF GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
NELSON