000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271613
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUN 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W N OF 5N MOVE W AT 10 KT ABOUT TO ENTER E 
PAC WATERS.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH WAVE DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER IT.  
VERY MOIST WARM TROPICAL AIR MASS S OF 12N COULD FEED MORE 
CONVECTION ON SRN FRINGES OF WAVE...BUT NO ORGANIZATION OBSERVED
AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVE W 12 KT. DIMINISHING
ISOLATED CONVECTION DUE TO ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN POSITION AS WAVE MOVES W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 114W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVE W 12 KT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM W OF WAVE AS AXIS APPROACHES 
AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND NE SHEAR DECREASES.  NO 
ORGANIZED CONVECTION NOTED AT THIS TIME BUT EXPECTED TO INCREASE 
NEXT 24-36 HRS. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 134W FROM 5N TO 14N MOVE W 10 KT. VERY DRY 
AIR MASS AND HOSTILE UPPER ENVIRONMENT PRECLUDES ANY SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION ALONG WITH THIS SYSTEM.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG...7N77W  9N95W  10N120W  
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E OF 
86W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS 
FROM 93W TO 102W AND FROM 110W TO 132W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT34N127W HAS TROUGH DIG S TO 7N133W 
WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE W OF AXIS. BROAD 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 14N116W HAS E-W RIDGE COVER 
REMAINDER OF BASIN ALONG 14N E OF 1130W.  INCREASING NE WIND 
ALONG RIDGE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY ACTING AGAINST ANY DEEP 
CONVECTION FORMING ALONG TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE.  WEAK 
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA W COAST BARELY 
DENTS GRIP OF RIDGE OVER AREA.  FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS UNDER RIDGE 
PRECLUDES SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FORMING.

MOISTURE ALONG ITCZ HAS DECREASED WITH WEAKENING WINDS BUT NEW 
BURST OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ABOUT TO ENTER EPAC WITH APPROACHING 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W.  CONDITIONS E OF 90W COULD INTENSIFY 
NEXT 24 HRS. 

AT THE SURFACE...
BROAD ANTICYCLONE 1034 MB WELL N OF OF AREA HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE 
TO 15N110W.  BRISK TRADES TO DECREASE AS RIDGE WEAKENS. 
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE COULD BE REASON FOR INCREASED WIND 
ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHICH HAVE BECOME STRONG SINCE 
YESTERDAY.

LARGE CROSS EQUATORIAL WELLS CONTINUE AFFECTING SW PORTION OF 
BASIN.   

$$
WALLY BARNES