000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270321
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUN 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W N OF 5N HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 12 KT THE 
PAST FEW DAYS. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AT 6N 
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FLARING OVER 
AND ALONG BOTH COASTS OF COSTA RICA. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101.5W HAS MOVED W AT 10 KT THE PAST 24 
HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 
6N TO 13N.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W FROM 6N TO 15N MOVING W AT 11 KT. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF WAVE AXIS 
WITH CYCLONIC TURNING WITHIN THE ITCZ AT 10N.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 132W FROM 5N TO 14N MOVING W AT 12 KT THE 
PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AT 
NEAR 9N.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS AXIS 10N78W 10N127W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 10N80W 11N118W 5N140W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A CUTOFF UPPER CYCLONE IS QUASI STATIONARY AT 32N138W WITH A 
TROUGH EXTENDING S THROUGH A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE AT 6N136W... 
WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO THE EQUATOR AT 137W. THE CYCLONE 
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE...BUT ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL 
SHIFT SLOWLY NE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL UPPER RIDGE 
JUST TO W ALONG 145W IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 12N116W. A RIDGE 
EXTENDS N TO BEYOND 32N125W AND EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH A 
LONGWAVE RIDGE DOMINATING THE W COAST OF N AMERICA. WITHIN THE 
DISCUSSION AREA...THE ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 132W AND 118W. A RIDGE AXIS ALSO EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 
10N131W AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 114W 
AND 130W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADS N AND NE ALONG 
THE W PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE TO NEAR 23N120W WHERE IT 
TURNS SE TO NEAR 15N113W. THIS MOISTURE BAND THEN MERGES WITH 
ANOTHER PLUME SPREADING N FROM ITCZ CONVECTION ENHANCED BY THE 
SAME ANTICYCLONE...BETWEEN 95W AND 110W.
 
AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 31N121W...DRIFTING SLOWLY SW WITH 
TIME...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO 17N108W. AN UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDS S ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE E 
PAC NEAR 15N95W. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED W OF THE TROUGH...AND IS 
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BUT 
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE TO S OF 14N 
BETWEEN 100W AND 88W. 
   
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 12N83W. ASSOCIATED UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA. DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING N ACROSS THE W 
CARIBBEAN AND SE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE S CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
ADDITIONALLY...DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING S ACROSS THE EQUATOR 
E OF 107W.  

AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 32N140W TO 20N110W. BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS OBSERVED N OF 13N BETWEEN 120W AND 
130W AND N OF 20N W OF 130W.

GAPS WINDS...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT IN AND TO SW OF GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
NELSON