000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUN 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W N OF 5N HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 12 KT THE 
PAST FEW DAYS. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AT 6N 
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM 
OF 5N80W. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100.5W HAS MOVED W AT ABOUT 10 KT THE PAST 
24 HOURS AND MAY BE SLOWING IN ITS WESTWARD PROGRESSION.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 
AXIS FROM 6N TO 14N.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 111W FROM 7N TO 15N MOVING W AT A CONSTANT 
11 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 
NM OF WAVE AXIS WITH CYCLONIC TURNING OBSERVED WITHIN THE ITCZ 
AT 10N111W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 131W FROM 5N TO 14N MOVING W AT 12 KT THE 
PAST 24 HOURS. ONLY SLIGHT CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT NOTED ALONG 
THE WAVE AXIS AT NEAR 10N.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 7N77W 13N96W 9N128W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 8N78W 11N110W 6N140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A CUTOFF UPPER CYCLONE IS QUASI STATIONARY AT 32N137W WITH A 
TROUGH EXTENDING S THROUGH A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE AT 8N123W... 
WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO THE S OF THE EQUATOR AT 139W. THE 
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE...BUT THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH 
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E AND NE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL 
UPPER RIDGE JUST TO W ALONG 145W IS ALSO PROGGED TO HOLD NEARLY 
STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 14N118W. A RIDGE 
EXTENDS N TO BEYOND 32N125W AND EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH A 
LONGWAVE RIDGE DOMINATING THE W COAST OF N AMERICA. THE ENVELOPE 
OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA IS N OF THE ITCZ 
AND SQUEEZED BETWEEN 133W AND 118W. A RIDGE AXIS ALSO EXTENDS SW 
TO NEAR 10N131W AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 114W AND 130W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADS N 
AND NE ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE TO NEAR 23N123W 
WHERE IT TURNS SE TO NEAR 15N113W. THE MOISTURE THEN MERGES WITH 
ANOTHER PLUME SPREADING N FROM ITCZ CONVECTION ENHANCED BY THE 
SAME ANTICYCLONE...BETWEEN 101W AND 110W.
 
AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 31N121W...DRIFTING SLOWLY SW WITH 
TIME...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO 16N109W. THE W 
PORTION OF AN ATLC TUTT HAS NOW SEPARATED FROM ITS PARENT TROUGH 
WELL TO THE E OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC. THE REMNANTS OF THE 
TROUGH HAS NOW MERGED WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS... 
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO INTO THE E PAC NEAR 14N97W. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED W OF 
THE TROUGH...AND IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...BUT CONVECTION IS ENHANCED S OF 14N BETWEEN 100W 
AND 90W. 
   
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 12N83W. ASSOCIATED UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE OVER 
THE CARIBBEAN AND SOMEWHAT ENHANCES THE PAC ITCZ TO THE E OF 
90W. DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING N ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AND 
SE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOME MOISTURE NOW SPREADING S ACROSS 
THE EQUATOR E OF 105W.  

AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 32N140W TO 20N110W. BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS OBSERVED N OF 13N BETWEEN 120W AND 
130W AND N OF 20N W OF 130W.

GAPS WINDS...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT IN AND TO SW OF GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
NELSON