000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261610
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W N OF 5N MOVE W 12 KT.  SCATTERED  
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS 
FROM 5N TO 10N WITHIN ITCZ AREA.  NO ORGANIZATION OBSERVED.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W FROM 4N TO 15N MOVE W 12 KT.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF WAVE FROM 10N TO 13N HAS NO 
ORGANIZATION AND HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 130W FROM 4N TO 15N MOVE W AT 10 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 12N WITHIN 
90 NM OF AXIS HAS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ABOVE BUT IS ABOUT TO 
COLLIDE WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS JUST W OF 133W AND CHANCES OF 
SURVIVAL ARE SLIM. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 139W FROM 4N TO 16N MOVE W 10 KT. NO 
CONVECTION ALONG WITH WAVE AS AIR MASS IS VERY DRY.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG...11N85W  9N130W 
6N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS E OF 114W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 114W TO 
133W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 32N139W DRIFT E HAS TROUGH DIG TO 
10N136W.  VERY DRY AIRMASS DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
W OF 135W.  SECOND CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 32N121W APPEARS STATIONARY.
WEAK TROUGH EXTEND SE TO 14N110W.

WIDE E-W RIDGE AXIS ALONG 14N E OF 130W COVERS REMAINDER OF 
AREA.  FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS UNDER RIDGE DUE TO MODERATE 
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.  LARGE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS UNDER RIDGE WITH 
LITTLE OR NO VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.  SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE 
ADVECTS ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO FEED ITCZ CONVECTION ALL 
THE WAY ACROSS TO 133W WHERE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DRIES IT. 

AT THE SURFACE...EQUATORIAL TROUGH BECOMING MORE ACTIVE THANKS 
TO THE INFLOW OF WARM MOIST SOUTHWESTERLIES IN SPITE OF 
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS.  DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS 
SCATTERED AND DISORGANIZED.  TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT TO ENTER E PAC
STANDS AS ONLY SYSTEM WITH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING...AND ONLY FOR 
SHORT DISTANCE AS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SHOULD BECOME ADVERSE W OF 
100W.  

ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES RIDGE WITH 1032 MB CENTER WELL N OF AREA 
EXTEND TO 17N113W.  WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING NEAR COAST OF NICARAGUA
INCREASING FLOW ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR NEXT 36 HRS AS IT 
DRIFTS WEST.
$$
WALLY BARNES