000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252211
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUN 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 12 KT THE PAST FEW 
DAYS AND WILL MOVE INTO THE E PAC WATERS TONIGHT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95.5W N OF 4N MOVING W 12 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS N OF 6N 
TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED CONVECTION ENHANCED 
OVER MEXICO AT 18N95W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 6N TO 15N MOVING W 12 KT.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 
WAVE AXIS WITH CYCLONIC TURNING OBSERVED WITHIN THE ITCZ AT 
8.5N108.5W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 126W FROM 7N TO 15N MOVING W AT 10 KT THE 
PAST 24 HOURS. ONLY SLIGHT CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT NOTED ALONG 
THE ITCZ AT THE MOMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 136W FROM 5N TO 14N MOVING W 10 KT. UPPER 
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AT THE MOMENT.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 9N78W 11N96W 10N126W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 270 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 10N78W 10N131W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A CUTOFF UPPER CYCLONE IS STILL EVIDENT AT 29.5N139W WITH A 
TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 16N135W TO A BASE NEAR 11N133W. THIS 
SYSTEM IS NOW PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY E AND DEEPEN S TO THE 
EQUATOR AS A TROPICAL UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES N ALONG 150W WITH 
ITS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPILLING SE INTO THE TROUGH ALONG 138W ON 
MON.  

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 15N122W. A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 10N131W ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE 
SPREADS N AND NE ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE TO 
NEAR 23N124W WHERE IT TURNS E TO NEAR 20N114W WHERE IT 
EVENTUALLY EVAPORATES. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS N TO BEYOND 32N125W 
MERGING WITH A LARGE RIDGE DOMINATING THE W COAST OF N AMERICA.
 
THE ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF THE ITCZ SQUEEZED 
BETWEEN 130W AND 118W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 31N120W...
SLIPPING SW WITH TIME...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S THROUGH 
ANOTHER CYCLONE AT 23N114W TO A BASE NEAR 14N112W. AT THE 
SURFACE A HIGH PRES IS NEAR 29N130W 1021 MB AND IS EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN AS A STRONGER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NW. A WEAK TROUGH 
EXTENDS IS STILL EVIDENT ALONG 32N127W TO 26N137W. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS OBSERVED NW OF LINE 17N140W 24N112W.
  
A TROPICAL UPPER TROUGH...TUTT...EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC 
ALONG 30N53W ACROSS S FLORIDA TO A BASE OVER MEXICO AT 17N98W.
JUST TO S...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 14N105W WITH ITS 
ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ZONAL ALONG 21N JUST TO THE S OF 
THE UPPER TROUGH THEN SPILLING SE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 
RETURNING W ALONG THE TROPICAL E PAC WATERS N OF THE EQUATOR E 
OF 110W...WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE E 
PAC ITCZ TO THE E OF 112W.

$$
NELSON