000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251606
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUN 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W N OF 6N MOVE W 12 KT.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS.  NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT 
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT TOTALLY UNFAVORABLE. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W FROM 3N TO 15N MOVE W 15 KT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF WAVE 
AXIS S OF 10N. UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NOT UNFAVORABLE AND MIGHT 
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS WAVE MOVES W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 125W FROM 4N TO 15N MOVE W 10 KT.  SCATTERED 
CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN ITCZ REGION AND NO ORGANIZATION 
NOTED.  UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NOT UNFAVORABLE AND MIGHT BECOME 
MORE FAVORABLE AS WAVE MOVES FURTHER W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 135W FROM 6N TO 17N MOVE W 10 KT.  NO 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE AS AIR MASS REMAINS TOO DRY 
AND HOSTILE UPPER LEVEL WINDS PRECLUDE ANY DEVELOPMENT.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG...6N81W  10N100W  9N124W  
8N127W  7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS E OF 133W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM 32N142W TO 9N134W 
KEEPS DRY AIRMASS W OF 133W ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE ITCZ.  WELL 
ANCHORED BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AT 14N123W 
MAINTAINS REMAINDER ARE N OF 13N W OF 110W WELL DRIED UP ALOFT 
DUE TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE.  CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 32N120W HAS 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO 14N116W.  

FINALLY...UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 15N104W HAS RIDGE EXTEND 
ALL THE WAY ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO VENEZUELA.  SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ADVECTS PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO E 
PAC ITCZ AND UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH NOT FAVORABLE 
FOR DEVELOPMENT...IS NOT HOSTILE EITHER ALLOWING SCATTERED DEEP 
CONVECTION ALONG LONG SWATH TO 133W. 

AIRMASS CONTINUE FAIRLY DRY N OF ITCZ UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SO 
CLOUDINESS VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IS RESTRICTED.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAKENING HIGH PRES CENTER 1030 MB WELL N OF 
AREA HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 20N115W BUT PRODUCING NO STRONG WINDS.
 
MODERATE SWELLS CROSSING EQUATOR INTO E PAC WATERS S OF 10N FROM 
95W TO 115W.

$$
WALLY BARNES