000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241602
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUN 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W N OF 6N MOVE W 12 KT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS N OF 
11N TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.  CONVECTION UNDER WEAK NE 
WINDS ALOFT THAT MIGHT FAVOR DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W FROM 5N TO 14N MOVE W 12 KT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF WAVE 
ALONG ITCZ.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 120W FROM 6N TO 14N MOVE W 12 KT.  ISOLATED 
CONVECTION ALONG WAVE AXIS SHOW NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION BUT WILL
BE ENTERING MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS IT MOVES WEST. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 130W FROM 6N TO 17N MOVE W 10 KT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN ITCZ HAS FAVORABLE UPPER 
ENVIRONMENT AT THIS TIME BUT IS ENTERING ZONE OF VERY DRY AIR 
MASS AND HOSTILE WINDS ALOFT.  NO DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG...9N83W 10N130W 9N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS E OF 134W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGH FROM 26N140W TO CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 2N120W 
IS HELD AT BAY BY WELL ANCHORED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTERED AT 18N124W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS N OF 13N W OF 113W AND 
WITHIN 240 NM OF TROUGH AXIS LITERALLY CUTTING OFF ITCZ WESTWARD 
EXPANSION AT 134W. 

SECOND MID/UPPER VORTEX AT 32N118W JUST OFF N COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO 15N114W.  AN ARRAY OF 
ANTICYCLONIC CENTERS COMPRISE RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM NW MEXICO  
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO CENTRAL VENEZUELA.  DEEP CONVECTION 
RESTRICTED TO ITCZ AND ITS SWATH OF MOISTURE ADVECTED BY RIDGE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.  

AT THE SURFACE...
BROAD RIDGE WELL N OF AREA EXTEND TO 20N115W.  LARGE AREA OF LOW 
CLOUDS WITH LITTLE OR NO VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT COVER MOST OF 
REGION UNDER RIDGE.  CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS THAT WERE AFFECTING 
E PAC SE CORNER HAVE SUBSIDED SUBSTANTIALLY AND ARE NOW 8-9 FT.  
NWW3 HAS KEPT A GOOD HANDLE ON SEA HEIGHTS AND CONTINUES TO 
BRING SEAS DOWN NEXT 24-36 HRS.  

$$
WALLY BARNES