000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220315
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUN 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 6N ALONG 90W MOVING W 15 KT.  SCATTERED 
CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 10N WITHIN 240 NM W OF WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 111W FROM 3N TO 13N MOVING W 10 KT.  
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG AXIS DIMINISHING DUE TO STRONG DRY 
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. 

BROAD LOW PRES CENTER AT 13N120W 1009 MB HAS BEEN LOSING ITS 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND REMAINS DISORGANIZED AS EASTERLY SHEAR 
DID NOT DIMINISH AS FORECASTED.  CHANCES FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT 
DECREASED AS LOW PRES APPROACHES VERY DRY AIRMASS UNDER ADVERSE 
INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR W OF 122W.    

..ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 9N84W 7N100W 14N120W 5N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS OF 7.5N83W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 86W TO 97W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 112W TO 122W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 32N139W 
TO 15N128W DRIFTING NW.  AREA OF DRY AIR/MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE W OF 125W.  DOWNSTREAM...BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS RIDGE EXTENDING DRY AREA N OF 18N 
ALL THE WAY TO COAST OF MEXICO.  PLENTY OF MOISTURE SNEAKS INTO 
E PAC AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ON EASTERLY FLOW.  UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 17N102W HAS WEAK TROUGH TO 5N96W.   

AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AT BASE OF UPPER TROUGH N OF AREA 
EXTEND TO 28N E OF 124W TO NRN BAJA PENINSULA EXPECTED TO 
DISSIPATE NEXT 24 HOURS.

RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER COLOMBIA  WITH 
PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO ITCZ TO COAST OF MEXICO 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA E OF ABOUT 110W.

AT THE SURFACE...STATIONARY HIGH PRES CENTER CONTINUES PUSHING 
STRONG N WINDS AGAINST COAST OF CALIFORNIA PRODUCING LARGE...13 
TO 16 FT...SWELLS WELL ABOVE NWW3 FORECAST...LESS THAN 11-12 FT. 
SWELLS JUST OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE OVER 48 HRS.
   
$$
WALLY BARNES